Features of the demographic situation in developed countries. Demographic problem and population explosion

College of Law, Economics and Management

ABSTRACT

in geography

on the topic: Demographic situation in economically developed countries

Completed

1st year student

groups - G1/2

Sadkovskaya E. V.

Krasnodar 2010

Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………...3

Chapter 1. Demographic situation in the modern world ………………...4

Chapter 2. Demographic situation in economic developed countries

2.1. Demographic crisis ……………………………………………….8

2.1.2. Economically developed countries………………………………….10

2.1.2. Russia…………………………………………………………………..11

2.2. Basic demographic processes

2.2.1. Natural population growth……………………………… .12

2.2.2. Net migration……………………………………………………..12

2.2.3. Total population growth…………………………………………12

2.3. Sex and age structure of the population ……………………………12

2.4. Key Demographic Trends

2.4.1. Declining birth rates……………………………13

2.4.2. Aging population of developed countries…………………………….14

2.4.3. Growth of immigration to developed countries……………………………16

Chapter 3. Demographic policy of developed countries

3.1. Experience in implementing demographic policy

3.1.1. France…………………………………………………………………19

3.1.2. Sweden………………………………………………………………………………….21

3.1.3. Belgium……………………………………………………………………………….22

3.1.4. Austria……………………………………………………………………………….22

3.1.5. Italy………………………………………………………………………………..22

3.1.6. European Union…………………………………………………………….23

3.1.7. USA………………………………………………………………………………..24

3.2. General results of demographic policy ………………………26

Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………..32

Bibliographic list of used literature ………………33

Introduction

The world's population is constantly increasing. The fastest rate of population growth continues to be observed in the group of 50 least developed countries. Currently, 95% of the world's population growth occurs in less developed regions, and only 5% in more developed ones. And if the world's fertility situation continues to develop according to today's scenario, by 2050 the population of more developed countries as a whole will decrease by an average of 1 million people annually, and thus the population of developing countries will increase by an average of 35 million annually. 22 million of which will be in least developed countries.

The demographic situation in economically developed countries is complex - the majority are experiencing a demographic crisis, which can entail many negative consequences in the economic and social spheres of life. Resolving demographic problems is now a priority task for the governments of economically developed countries.

This work is devoted precisely to this topical topic. The purpose of the work is to analyze the current demographic situation in economically developed countries.

Main tasks of the work:

Characteristic demographic situation in the world as a whole, highlighting the place of developed countries in ongoing demographic processes;

Clarification of the characteristics of the demographic situation in economically developed countries: consideration of the demographic crisis, main demographic indicators, observed trends in changes in the current situation.

Determination of the main directions of demographic policy pursued in these countries in order to improve the demographic situation.

The work itself is structured in accordance with the assigned objectives: the material is presented in three main chapters.

When writing the work, material was used from various information sources: scientific and educational literature, periodicals, resources of the global Internet - links are available in the text of the work.

Chapter 1. Demographic situation in modern world

In 1988, the US National Geographic Society published a world map called "Earth at Risk." The number one danger on this map is population pressure. The fact is that since the middle of the 20th century there has been an unprecedented growth in the world population in the history of mankind. Homo sapiens - Homo sapiens as a species of living beings, the pinnacle of the creation of life forms on Earth - has existed on the planet for about 100 thousand years, but only about 8 thousand years ago there were about 10 million people on Earth. The number of earthlings increased very slowly while they lived by hunting and gathering, leading the lifestyle of nomads. But with the transition to settled agriculture, to new forms of production, especially industrial, the number of people began to increase rapidly and by the middle of the 18th century amounted to about 800 million. Then came a period of increasing acceleration of population growth on Earth. Around 1820, the population of earthlings reached 1 billion. In 1927 this value doubled. The third billion was recorded in 1959, the fourth 15 years later, in 1974, and just 13 years later, July 11, 1987 was declared by the UN as the “birthday of the 5 billionth person.” The sixth billion entered the planet in 2000 ( see maps 1, 2).

Map 1. World population, mid-1990s

Map 2. Population doubling time

The current demographic situation is a global problem. And above all, because rapid population growth is occurring in the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Thus, the world population increased daily in the 90s to 254 thousand people. Less than 13 thousand of this number were in industrialized countries, the remaining 241 thousand were in developing countries ( see fig.1). 60% of this number came from Asian countries, 20% from Africa and 10% from Latin America.

Rice. 1. Structure of world population growth in 2006, %

(based on site materialshttp:// www. demoscope. ru)

At the same time, these countries, due to their economic, social and cultural backwardness, are least able to provide their population, which doubles every 20-30 years, with food, as well as other material goods, provide at least basic education to the younger generation and provide work to the population of working age. In addition, rapid population growth is accompanied by its own specific problems, one of which is a change in its age structure: the share of children under 15 years of age over the past three decades has increased in most developing countries to 40-50% of their population. As a result, the so-called economic burden of the disabled population on the able-bodied population has increased significantly, which in these countries is now almost 1.5 times higher than the corresponding figure in industrialized countries. And given the lower total employment of the working-age population in developing countries and the huge relative agrarian overpopulation in most of them, the self-employed population is actually experiencing even more significant economic overload.

As the experience of a number of countries shows, the decline in population growth rates depends on many factors. These factors include providing the entire population with adequate quality housing, full employment, and free access to education and medical care. The latter is impossible without the development of the national economy on the basis of industrialization and modernization of agriculture, without the development of education and solving social issues. Research conducted in recent years in a number of countries in Asia and Latin America show that where the level of economic and social development is lowest, where the majority of the population is illiterate, the birth rate is very high ( see map 3), although in many of them a policy is being pursued to regulate the birth rate, and vice versa, there is a decrease in it with progressive economic transformations.

Map 3. Total fertility rate (2006)

(based on site materialshttp:// www. sci.aha.ru/map/world )

No less relevant is the direct connection between world population growth and such global problems, such as the provision of mankind with natural resources and environmental pollution. The rapid growth of rural population has already led in many developing countries to such “pressure” on natural resources (soil, vegetation, wildlife, fresh water etc.), which in a number of areas undermined their ability to naturally regenerate. Currently, the consumption of various natural resources for industrial production in developing countries per capita is 10-20 times less than in developed countries. However, assuming that over time these countries will become economically developed and reach the same level of this indicator as in our time in Western Europe, their need for raw materials and energy turned out to be approximately 10 times greater in absolute terms than everyone else has now countries of the European Community. If we take into account the population growth rates of developing countries, then their potential need for natural resources would have to double by 2025, and accordingly pollution could increase significantly environment industrial waste.

According to the UN, if the demands corresponding to modern Western society are met, there will be enough raw materials and energy for only 1 billion people, just the population of the United States, Western Europe and Japan. Therefore, these countries began to be called the “golden billion”. Together they consume more than half of the energy, 70% of metals, create ¾ of the total mass of waste, of which: the United States consumes about 40% of the world's natural resources, emitting over 60% of all pollution. A significant share of waste remains in countries that produce raw materials for the “golden billion”.

The rest of the world's population is left out of the “golden billion”. But if it were able to reach the level of the United States in the growth of mineral resources, then the known oil reserves would be depleted in 7 years, natural gas– in 5 years, coal – in 18 years. There remains hope for new technologies, but all of them are capable of having an effect with a population that is stable and not doubling every few decades.

Chapter 2. Demographic situation in economically developed countries

2.1. Demographic crisis

2.1.2. Economically developed countries

The economically developed countries of the world have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in natural population growth rates ( see table 1). Until recently, there were almost no very significant differences in this regard between them. However, recently, quite strong differentiation has also begun to occur in this group of countries, and now this group can also be divided into three subgroups.

Table 1. European countries with negative natural population growth

IN first subgroup includes countries where a fairly favorable demographic situation still exists, characterized by at least average fertility and natural increase rates, ensuring expanded population reproduction. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the reproduction formula (fertility - mortality = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15‰ - 9‰ = 6‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. At this rate of population growth, doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland - in 250 years).

Co. second subgroup it is necessary to include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate dropped to 1.5 in the mid-90s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of birth rates over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.

Finally, third subgroup unites countries with negative natural population growth, or, more simply, with its natural decline (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with “minus” population growth only in 1990-2000. grew from 3 to 15. All of them are in Europe.

Demographic IMPLEMENTATION EXPERIENCE DEMOGRAPHIC POLITICIANS IN A ROW DEVELOPED COUNTRIES WORLD France Sweden Belgium Austria... are being implemented in demographic Swedish politics. The Swedish Government's policy is aimed at creating economic independence...

The economically developed countries of the world, as already noted, have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in natural population growth rates. Until recently, there were almost no very significant differences in this regard between them. However, recently, quite strong differentiation has also begun to occur in this group of countries, and now it can also be divided into three subgroups.
The first subgroup includes countries where a fairly favorable demographic situation still exists, characterized by at least average fertility and natural increase rates, ensuring expanded population reproduction. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the reproduction “formula” (fertility - mortality = natural increase) in 2005 remained at the level of 14.1% - 8.2% = 5.2%. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 1%. This subgroup also includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, and Norway, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3–0.5%. At this rate of growth, population doubling in these countries can be expected in 100–200 years.
The second subgroup includes countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, for which the total fertility rate in the mid-1990s. decreased to 1.5. Some of these countries still have a minimal excess of birth rates over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with “zero” population growth. This is, for example, Sweden.
Finally, the third subgroup unites countries with negative natural population growth, or, more simply, with its natural decline (depopulation).
Table 40


The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with “minus” population growth only in 1990–2000. increased from 3 to 15. In 2005, there were 15 of them, but the composition changed somewhat (Table 40).
It would not be a mistake to say that the countries of the third (and in fact the second) subgroup have already entered a period of demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated reasons. First of all, these include a rapid, and sometimes downright collapse, decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. This phenomenon is sometimes referred to by demographers as aging from below. Further, the increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of increasing levels of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of people of older (“non-reproducing”) ages in the population, i.e., as they say, to aging from above.
However, it would be wrong to try to explain the onset of the crisis only by demographic reasons. Its emergence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medical, social, and moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as a family crisis. The average family size in the countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2–3 people. And it has become much less stable - with an increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without formal marriage, and a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.
Back in the early 1960s. number of divorces per 1000 marriages in countries foreign Europe fluctuated between 100 and 200, but already at the end of the 1990s. it increased to 200–300. Even more frightening are the data on illegitimate children, the proportion of which during the same time increased by 5-10 times. In Great Britain and France, for example, the proportion of illegitimate children exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark – 40%. But the “absolute champions” in this regard were and remain Sweden, Norway and Iceland with an indicator above 50%.
All these reasons and factors are combined in different ways in the countries listed in Table 40. Thus, in Germany and Italy, the influence of demographic factors seems to really predominate. In the post-socialist countries of Central-Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) it was affected by the fact that in the 1990s. they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and transitioning from a command-planned to a market economy. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 1990s.
As for Russia, in the 20th century. One might say, she was unlucky with the demographic situation. The first phase of the demographic transition ended in it by the beginning of the twentieth century, but a real demographic explosion never followed. Moreover, over the course of half a century, Russia experienced three demographic crises: during the First World War and Civil War, during the years of collectivization of the village and severe famine and, finally, during the Great Patriotic War. In the 60s–80s. XX century The demographic situation in the country as a whole has stabilized, and back in 1989 the “formula” for the natural movement of the population looked like this: 19.6% - 10.6% = 9%. However, in the 1990s. A new, and especially strong, demographic crisis broke out (Table 41).
From the data in Table 41 it follows that in the 70s - early 80s. XX century Russia's demographic situation was relatively favorable. Thus, in 1983, 2.5 million children were born in the RSFSR. Then the beginning of perestroika and the fight against alcohol abuse had a beneficial effect on the birth rate and natural population growth. However, with the onset of the socio-economic crisis of the 1990s. The demographic situation has deteriorated sharply. Since 1992, Russia has experienced an absolute population decline. It can be added that in the RSFSR in 1988 there were 2 more children per woman (in the USSR as a whole - 2.2 children), and by the end of the 1990s. Women's fertility in the country has dropped to 1.17 children, while more than two are needed for sustainable population growth. The number of marriages per 1000 inhabitants in 2000 decreased to 6.3 (in 1955 - 12.1), and the number of divorces increased to 4.3 (in 1955 - 0.8). According to available forecasts, the population of Russia will continue to decline in the first decades of the 21st century, when mature age The small generation born in the 1990s will enter, and the largest generation, born in the 50s, will leave working age. XX century As a result, by 2015 the number of inhabitants in Russia may decrease (according to the average option) to 134 million people.
Table 41

In the 70-90s, a demographic crisis emerged, affecting economically developed countries and countries with economies in transition. This crisis consists of a sharp decrease in population growth rates in both groups of countries and even natural decline (in Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Germany, Sweden), as well as demographic aging, reduction or stabilization of labor resources.

Demographic aging (when the proportion of the population over 60 years of age is more than 2% of its total population) is a natural, historically determined process that has irreversible consequences. At the same time, this process poses serious socio-economic problems for society - primarily an increase in the economic burden on the employed population.

Due to the fact that the countries noted (including Russia) are at the stage of demographic development characteristic of all industrial countries, a large natural population increase by modern stage impossible.

In Russia, a decrease in mortality and an increase in the birth rate to the extent that they are actually possible in our country under the most favorable developments of events can somewhat reduce the natural decline compared to the situation in the 90s. (but we cannot overcome it). The only source of population growth or at least maintaining its non-decreasing numbers can only be immigration. As for demographic aging, it is expected that in Russia in 2000-2015. A “window of demographic favor” will open. During this period, the share of the population of retirement age will remain virtually unchanged, while at the same time the share of the population of working age will increase significantly. This period must be used to reduce the mortality rate of the population, especially in younger and middle ages (this will somewhat slow down the old age), as well as to reform the social protection system and significantly increase the efficiency of the economy.

Humanity is experiencing an era of global demographic revolution. Until the turn of 2000, the population of our planet was growing at an increasing rate. At that time, it seemed to many that the population explosion, overpopulation and the inevitable depletion of natural resources and reserves would lead humanity to disaster. However, in 2000, when the world population reached 6 billion, the rate of population growth peaked at 87 million per year, or 240 thousand people per day, the growth rate began to decrease.

Demographic transition

There are 4 stages of demographic development based on types of reproduction.

First stage: high birth rate and death rate (positive natural increase)

Second stage: high birth rate, decreased mortality (positive natural increase)

Third stage: decreased birth rate and low mortality (decrease in the rate of expanded reproduction, transition to simple reproduction - natural increase = 0)

Fourth stage: low birth rate and death rate (natural increase = 0 or negative)

Demographic transition– this is the transition from the second stage to the third, when there is a decrease in population growth rates down to 0,
and further population decline is possible.

World population

1800 – 1 billion

1930 – 2 billion

1960 – 3 billion

1974 – 4 billion

1987 – 5 billion

1999 – 6 billion

2011 – 7 billion

2050 – 9.5 billion (average forecast)

There are different forecasts for the world population by 2050. Average 9.5 billion – UN. Worst – 10, best – 8.

One of the consequences of the population explosion in developing countries - their exclusively young population. Half of the residents of Russia are under 37 years old, in Europe - 39. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, half of the population are children and adolescents under the age of 16. The average age of the entire population in Africa is 19 years, in Asia - 28 years. Thus, both now and in the foreseeable future, a huge part of the population of developing countries will be teenagers and young people, socially immature and largely uneducated. They do not have clear prospects and are easily manipulated, prone to religious or political fanaticism.

In developed countries, the population has stabilized at one billion. They went through the transition only 50 years before developing countries.

The dynamics of modern developed society undoubtedly create a stressful environment. Initially this happens at the level individual person, when the ties that lead to family formation and stability break down. One of the consequences of this was a sharp reduction in the number of children per woman noted in developed countries. Thus, in Spain this number is 1.07, in Italy - 1.15 and in Russia - 1.3, while on average 2.15 children are needed to maintain simple population reproduction. Thus, all the richest and most economically developed countries, which carried out the demographic transition 30-50 years earlier, turned out to be insolvent in their main function– population reproduction. This is facilitated by both the increased time spent on education and the liberal value system, which arose in the modern world and is so rampantly propagated by some media, all those phenomena that are commonly called the moral crisis of society. If this trend continues, then the main population of developed countries is doomed to extinction and displacement by emigrants from more fertile ethnic groups.

This is one of the strongest signals that demographics give us. In general, if in developed countries we note a sharp drop in population growth, in which the population is not renewed and is rapidly aging, then in the developing world the opposite picture is still observed - there the youth-dominated population is growing rapidly.This change age composition is the main result of the demographic revolution, which has now led to the maximum stratification of the world by age composition of the population.

With the world's population stabilized, development can no longer be tied to numerical growth. Development may stop, and then a period of decline will begin and the ideas of the “Decline of Europe” will receive a new embodiment. But something else is also possible – high-quality development, in which the quality of the population and the quality of people will become the meaning and goal of development. Moreover, it is Europe, some of whose countries were the first to implement the demographic transition, that is now paving the way for the reorganization of its economic and political space. The example of Europe points to the processes that other countries and humanity can expect in the future.

Causes of low birth rate in developed countries:

ü growth in the level and role of education, long-term training

ü changes in the value system

ü high level of urbanization

ü emancipation of women

Problems– population aging:

ü large tax burden on working population(decided by raising the retirement age)

ü as a consequence, pension problems

ü cultural problem - extinction of cultures, nations

ü extinction of villages (vacant lands)

ü growth in the number and importance of migrants, their replacement of the labor force

ü there may be a shortage of highly qualified labor in the future

Solutions– stimulation of fertility:

ü social support for large families (additional benefits, payments, maternity capital)

ü payment for maternity leave

ü provision of free medical care and education

ü propaganda

ü (for some countries) growth in living standards and social guarantees

ü (in countries where important role religion plays) abortion ban

ü (Now) from the 19th century - migration from Europe to America, and r/yushch in r/t

Reasons for the high birth rate in developing countries:

ü children are a means of social guarantee (in developed countries these are pensions)

ü agricultural sector – labor-intensive production (children – labor force)

ü contraception is not common

ü traditions and mentality

ü there are no prerequisites for reducing the birth rate

Low level of urbanization (for backward countries)

No active emancipation of women

Low level of education

Problems:

ü overpopulation

ü low level life

ü low level of development human resources

Solutions– reduction in fertility:

ü improving living standards

ü increasing the level of education

ü improving healthcare and distributing contraception

ü raising the marriageable age

ü direct bans, additional taxes, deprivation of social benefits (China)

ü increasing the status of women, involvement in production

Demographic situation in Russia - problems:

ü fairly low birth rate and high mortality rate (mortality rate is higher than in Europe)

ü low standard of living

ü low level of medical care

ü low life expectancy

ü imbalance (in the Caucasus the birth rate is high, in the north it is low)

ü demographic hole after WW2 and the 90s

Economically developed countries

The economically developed countries of the world have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in natural population growth rates (see Table 1). Until recently, there were almost no very significant differences in this regard between them. However, recently, quite strong differentiation has also begun to occur in this group of countries, and now this group can also be divided into three subgroups.

Table 1. European countries with negative natural population growth

The first subgroup includes countries where a fairly favorable demographic situation still exists, characterized by at least average fertility and natural increase rates, ensuring expanded population reproduction. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the reproduction formula (fertility - mortality = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15‰ - 9‰ = 6‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. At this rate of population growth, doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland - in 250 years).

The second subgroup includes countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate dropped to 1.5 in the mid-90s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of birth rates over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.

Finally, the third subgroup unites countries with negative natural population growth, or, more simply, with its natural decline (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with “minus” population growth only in 1990-2000. grew from 3 to 15. All of them are in Europe.

It would not be a mistake to say that the countries of the third (and in fact the second) subgroup have already entered a period of demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated reasons. First of all, these include a rapid, and sometimes downright collapse, decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of people in the population young. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below. Further, the increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of increasing levels of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of people of older (“non-reproductive”) age in the population, that is, as they say, to aging from above.

However, it would be wrong to try to explain the onset of the crisis only by demographic reasons. Its emergence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medical, social, and moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as a family crisis. The average family size in the countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2-3 people. And it has become much less stable - with an increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without formal marriage, and a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.

If at the beginning of the 60s the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in foreign European countries ranged from 100 to 200, then at the end of the 90s it increased to 200-300. Even more egregious are the data on illegitimate children, the proportion of which during the same time increased by 5-10 times. In Great Britain and France, for example, the proportion of illegitimate children exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark - 40%. But the “absolute champions” in this regard were and remain Sweden, Norway and Iceland with an indicator of over 50%.

All these reasons and factors are combined in different ways in the countries listed in Table 2. Thus, in Germany and Italy, the influence of demographic factors does seem to predominate. The post-socialist countries of Central-Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) were affected by the fact that in the 90s they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and the transition from a command-planned to a market economy. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in the CIS member countries (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 90s.