The terrorist attack at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester killed at least 22 people. There are children among the dead.

The Islamic State terrorist group has claimed responsibility for the explosion, and accounts linked to it say it is “just the beginning.”

The goal of IS is to build a global caliphate. Even if it is possible to clear Iraq and Syria of militants (according to optimistic forecasts, their forces will be completely defeated by the end of 2017), only their terrorist quasi-state will cease to exist, but not the idea that inspires suicide bombers to carry out terrorist attacks around the world.

"The Secret" chronicles the evolution of the most powerful terrorist organization in world history.

How does the Islamic State work?

In 2014, the creation of the Islamic State was announced by the Iraqi theologian and Islamic scholar Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, also known as Abu Dua or Caliph Ibrahim. Little is still known about the personality of this man: it was said that he even gives orders to his fighters from behind a mask.

It is believed that al-Baghdadi is about 45 years old, a native of the Iraqi city of Samarra and, presumably, was a cleric in the mosque when American troops entered Iraq (however, some researchers claim that this is “propaganda”). He was then detained in the American Bucca camp as an accomplice of terrorists. After his release, he became actively involved in al-Qaeda activities in Iraq.

At the beginning of this year, there were reports of an IS ideologist being seriously wounded. Now he is either in Mosul or in the deserts near the Jordanian borders.

The state with a population of 1–2 million people, which al-Baghdadi began to build in the occupied territories of Iraq and Syria, is divided into vilayats (provinces) and qawati (cities and towns) and lives according to Sharia law.

When IS captures a new city, write the authors of the book “Islamic State” Michael Weiss and Hasan Hassan, the first object that begins to function is “Hadad Square”. Punishments are carried out there: they are crucified, beheaded, flogged and their hands are cut off. But IS also has regular municipal services, media work (for example, the Amaq agency, which reported IS’s involvement in the terrorist attack in Manchester, or the famous Dabiq magazine), and “citizens” pay taxes.

In 2014, CNN estimated the annual budget of the Islamic State at $2 billion. But its main source of replenishment - oil sales - is becoming scarce. In 2015, terrorists could earn $500 million, in 2016 - $260 million.

What is IS seeking?

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi created IS to establish “the kingdom of Allah on earth.” First, the militants want to create a powerful association of Islamists that can oppose secular states, and then establish a worldwide caliphate that will live according to Sharia law.

First of all, the militants promised to deal with all “opponents of Islam” and “US minions”; in 2015, they threatened to destroy Israel and seize the Gaza Strip: “We will uproot Israel. You (Hamas - The Secret), Fatah and all these supporters of a secular state are nothing, so our advancing ranks will displace you,” said one of the militants’ video messages. Although Hamas and Fatah are also Islamist groups, IS threatened them with reprisals for their lack of adherence to Sharia: “For eight years they have ruled the Gaza Strip and have not been able to implement a single fatwa from Allah.”

Since then, the militants have been unable to start a war with Israel. In 2016, the Al-Naba newspaper, published by IS, explained that first they would have to establish power in Iraq and Syria, then put an end to the “godless governments” within the Muslim world.

“The Islamic State is not just a bunch of psychopaths,” American journalist Graham Wood warned in The Atlantic in 2015. “This is a religious group with its own skillfully selected doctrine, not least of which is the belief that IS fighters are hastening the coming end of the world.”

According to Islamic eschatology, after the end of the world, Allah will call all believers to himself, but before that, the last battle must take place between Muslims and “Romans” (as Islamic theologians call Christians) in the Syrian city of Dabiq.

What territory does IS control?

The main gains of the Islamic State came in 2014. In January, militants defeated the Iraqi army in the city of Fallujah, and in June they captured one of the largest cities in Iraq, Mosul. The terrorists then launched an attack on Baghdad, simultaneously seizing infrastructure, destroying architectural monuments and executing local residents, journalists and other infidels. An economy appeared in the state - income was generated through trade in oil and antiquities. By September, IS had captured a large area of ​​territory in Iraq and Syria, which Vox compared to the size of Belgium. In addition to Mosul, the militants held Al-Qaim, Syrian Raqqa and reached Aleppo, that is, to the border of Syria and Turkey. According to the BBC, at the peak of its power, IS controlled 40% of Iraq, with about 10 million civilians under occupation.

In 2015, the United States began mass bombing of IS positions, Russian air forces became involved, and local resistance units became more active. During the first half of 2015, the self-proclaimed state lost 9.4% of previously conquered territories in Iraq. True, when IS loses influence in one area, it often compensates for this by capturing new cities. Thus, in May 2015, the ancient city of Palmyra was taken; in August, militants paying special attention to propaganda and working with mass communication channels published a video of the explosion of the ancient temple of Palmyra. This video caused horror in the Western world. Palmyra was soon liberated by the American and Russian military, and a symphony orchestra conducted by Valery Gergiev played on the ruins of the temple, but in 2016, militants retook this land again.

In January 2016, IS controlled more than 70,000 square meters. km in the territory of Iraq and Syria, by the end of the year the militants had lost 14% of their gains and were left with 60,400 sq. km. According to the IHS Conflict Monitor, by October 2016, about 6 million civilians remained under occupation. In April 2017, the Iraqi government announced that the terrorist organization now controls no more than 7% of the country's territory - less than 30,000 square meters. km. In Syria, ISIS troops are also suffering defeats.

Who is resisting IS and who is helping?

The conflict in Syria and Iraq is a war of all against all, and the Islamic State is fighting on several fronts. His main opponents are an international coalition of 68 states led by the United States, the Iraqi government army, the Syrian army of President Bashar al-Assad and Russia (which has been on his side in the civil war that has been going on in this country since 2011).

In April 2013, IS entered the Civil War in Syria, but not on the side of Assad’s opponents, but as an independent force. Late that year, terrorists took part in a Sunni uprising against the Shiite government in Baghdad and began to control Iraq's Anbar province. IS quickly captured the territories of these countries, and Iraq even called what was happening the Third World War, meaning the upcoming construction of a global caliphate. Concerned about such activity, the United States sent the first instructors to Iraq in the summer of 2014 to help the military. In September, to fight IS, the Americans assembled an international anti-terrorist coalition, which became the largest association of its kind in history - today it includes 68 countries.

The US State Department estimates that by March 2017, the coalition had spent more than $22 billion on the war effort - and will spend another $2 billion in 2017. The most active participants are Germany, Canada, Great Britain, France, Australia, Türkiye. They sent 9,000 troops to Syria and Iraq, donated 8,200 tons of military equipment and carried out more than 19,000 airstrikes.

The United States plays a key role in the coalition: 4,850 American troops are fighting IS in Iraq, and 2,500 in Kuwait.

Iraq sent 300,000 military and the same number of police to fight IS, Iraqi Kurdistan (a Kurdish state entity within Iraq) - 200,000, Iran - 40,000. In the Syrian army, about 250,000 troops are fighting IS.

In the fall of 2015, Russia entered the war with the Islamic State. Then Moscow's representative to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, said that we would not join the allied countries because the coalition was bombing Syria without the consent of the local government and without permission from the UN Security Council. It was not officially stated how many Russians are fighting in Syria, but it is believed that there are at least several thousand of them there.

Officially, no one in the world recognizes IS as a state, much less provides support to the terrorist group. But many are suspected of providing financial assistance to terrorists: Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and even Israel. The New York Times even published the names of individual patrons of the arts. For example, journalists suspect Kuwaiti businessman Ghanim al-Mteiri of aiding IS.

In October 2016, documents from Hillary Clinton's hacked email account confirmed that even some US allies could be helping ISIS: “We must put pressure on the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which are illegally supporting ISIS and other radical Sunnis in the region,” it said. correspondence.

Most of Syria's oil and gas fields are in the hands of ISIS, and Türkiye and Jordan are considered the main buyers of illegal oil. The United States and Europe accused Assad's Russian ally of the same thing.

Chronicle of ISIS terrorist attacks

Since June 2014, IS supporters have carried out about 150 terrorist attacks in three dozen countries, killing at least 2,000 people. This does not count the killings of civilians in Iraq and Syria, public executions of military personnel, journalists, and humanitarian workers.

Outside of Iraq and Syria, the first IS-related terrorist attacks occurred back in 2014. Mass attacks began in 2015. On January 7, two terrorists stormed the offices of Charlie Hebdo magazine in Paris and shot and killed 12 editorial staff. The attack may have been related to the publication of a cartoon of the leader of the Islamic State. In November, Paris again became a target for militants. This time the terrorists organized six attacks in different parts of the city. 132 dead. This has never happened in Western Europe.

In 2016, several large-scale terrorist attacks occurred at once. In March, two suicide bombers blew themselves up at Brussels airport. 14 people died. Another explosion occurred in the subway an hour and a half later. 21 killed. In June, 45 people were killed in an attack on Istanbul airport. First, the militants shot at people, and then detonated an explosive device. In July, a truck driven by a terrorist drove into a crowd of people on an embankment in Nice. 86 deaths.

On October 13, 2015, IS declared jihad against Russia, and on October 31 of the same year, a bomb exploded on board a Kogalymavia plane that took off from Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. 217 passengers and seven crew members were killed.

Vasily, I don’t think so in any way, it would be pretty stupid (correlation of correctness and number of minuses). I completely agree with your arguments. However, both in this case and in many other special cases (including those that are the subject of the controversy), the parties often miss important factors, the existence of which for some reason they cannot or do not want to believe. The number of necessary arguments is often almost impossible to provide at once and many facts, alas, are hidden. My answer will be rather jagged, in the hope that in your mind you will be able to connect the logical parts into a somewhat clear picture.

Do you agree with me that a scientific approach that deliberately does not take into account facts ceases to be scientific?

So, about argumentation and facts: I try to think in fundamental concepts and absorb as much knowledge as possible. A lot has to be sifted out - humanity has accumulated a huge amount of junk in the form of quasi-sciences, distorted teachings (Darwin alone got it) and historical fakes and more mundane garbage in the form of economic theories and, for example, market laws.

I need this for work, I’m a marketing strategist and I’m not interested in what Bloomberg says (as an example) - because it’s just a tool of influence for one of the groups. We're not surprised that, suppose, McDonald's or Coca-Cola don't reveal their secrets? It's easy to guess that money is to blame. Continue this thought and you will realize that on many levels it is NOT BENEFITABLE to tell the truth. This is business. This is a daily reality for me.

There is a whole chain of processes from the buyer to the manufacturer, the investor, the interstate level and the supranational level - all of these are 80% generally accepted facts, which I will omit.

I decided to cut it short...let me give you one specific example: wikileaks.org. In the archive of Mrs. Clinton's letters, dial number 1606 and, if English allows, read it. And ask yourself: “Do I understand everything correctly from what is happening around me?” If you don’t go and read it, you will abandon this knowledge, like dozens of “minus intellectuals.” If you go, you will think open-mindedly. And you may not be able to answer the Question about terrorism in the same way as yesterday.

Let me summarize. Strategic marketing came to us from the West, and today it is engaged in creating comfortable models of reality for buyers, within which non-stop cycles of consumption and purchase of anything are justified. These companies rarely stop at moral barriers. People are full of stereotypes, they take advantage of this, build new ones, demolish old ones if they interfere with the integration of layers into market relations. I can describe this process for a long time and in the end you will see that this is a tree with many branches (science, show business, culture). Today these gentlemen have set their sights on something more global, and terror is just one of the tools in achieving these goals. Some people understand this and are not happy with it.

As George Bush once said, answering questions on Iranian issues: “Sometimes money trumps peace.” Thus, I will develop and slightly refute the point of view of Anatoly Alexandrovich: If necessary, American citizens will also be sacrificed. Alas, I have no doubt that this will definitely happen - this is in the logic of this system, there are no moral aspects in it, there is only Money.

The most combat-ready group of international terrorists, with the support of our military, was defeated: as Vladimir Putin emphasized at the ceremony to begin the withdrawal of troops, the task of fighting armed gangs on Syrian soil has been “brilliantly solved.” At the same time, as the Russian leader noted, the threat of terrorist manifestations in the world is still very high. The same ISIS (an organization banned in the Russian Federation) has not yet been completely eliminated. To understand the algorithms for countering terrorists, it is necessary to remember the root causes of the emergence of this structure, to understand the origins of its strengthening and growth.
Under the banner of the “world caliphate” The chronology of the “formation” of the ISIS movement dates back to 1999, when the first information appeared about the creation in Iraq of the Jamaat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad group, which later joined Al-Qaeda (both organizations are banned in the Russian Federation). It was these structures, merging with other radical formations, that in 2006 proclaimed themselves as the “Islamic State”, or ISIS - “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant”. It is interesting that in the first years only a narrow circle of specialists knew about them. They started talking widely and loudly about the ISIS movement in 2014, when this group managed to conduct successful military operations in Iraq and Syria. In a short time, the Islamists expanded their activities so much that the military campaign launched against them was called by some politicians nothing less than the “third world war.”
Some time ago, experts from the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies carried out large-scale work to study the root causes and circumstances of the emergence of this terrorist “association.” This, according to analysts, was led to by a whole chain of large-scale and far from positive changes in world geopolitics. These include the collapse of the Soviet Union, the war in Yugoslavia and its division, airstrikes on Iraq in 1998 and the occupation of the state in 2003, the deployment of NATO troops to Afghanistan in 2001, the collapse of Sudan, Ethiopia, Maidan in Ukraine, as well as Arab revolutions and the crisis in Syria. Moreover, the West was directly involved in organizing ISIS.

“Daesh (also called the Islamic State - author) is not an independent phenomenon and acts in the interests of other states,” emphasizes senior researcher at RISI Evgeniy Biryukov. - Back in 2006, the so-called maps of the “New Middle East” or “Bloody Borders” by Pentagon Colonel Ralph Peters, on which he divided the states of the Middle East, became widespread. And they marked the state of Sunnistan, which operated in that part of the territory of Syria and Iraq that was occupied by Daesh in 2014. In addition, in 1993, in the book “The Great Chessboard,” Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote that the United States will lead the process of Islamization and will contribute to the spread of radical Islam.”

Today, when many cards are already “beaten,” the West’s involvement in interference in the internal affairs of Middle Eastern countries, which influenced the negative development of the situation in the region, is not hidden by Western politicians themselves. Thus, back in 2003, former British Foreign Secretary David Miliband expressed the opinion that the military operation in this country launched by the United States and Great Britain contributed to the destabilization of the situation in Iraq and the emergence of the IS military group. Later, British Prime Minister Tony Blair admitted in his interview with CNN that “there is some truth in the fact that the invasion of Iraq by the United States and its allies in 2003 was one of the main reasons for the emergence of ISIS.” What can we say if the same admission was forced American leader Barack Obama can do the same. Speaking at the end of his presidency at an event in Florida, he, commenting on the situation in the field of countering terrorism, admitted that the US invasion of Iraq and the mistakes made were one of the reasons for the emergence of the Islamic State.
Dictatorship of Poverty Today, different versions of the emergence of ISIS are put forward. For example, they say that some senior officers of his army loyal to Saddam Hussein were involved in the creation of this structure. There is some truth in these words, given the huge amount of Iraqi weapons that ended up in the hands of terrorists. But other circumstances cannot be discounted. For example, those of us who follow television reports from places where the confrontation with ISIS is being waged invariably pay attention to the meager situation in cities and villages, to the outright poverty and misery of the local population. According to analysts, the increase in the activity of terrorist groups in the Middle East was largely a consequence of the deteriorating political and economic situation. Experts from the Russian Higher School of Economics established some time ago that one of the main reasons for the emergence of ISIS was unemployment, as well as rapid population growth in the countries where this organization raised its flag.
“The impoverishment of the population ultimately created the ground for the spread of ideas of religious extremism among the unemployed youth of Syria and Iraq,” believes Anatoly Vishnevsky, director of the HSE Institute of Demography.
By the way, it was against this sad background that the so-called “spiritual leaders” actively spread the ideology of radical Islam among the broad masses of the poorly educated population. What it led to is now clearly visible...Senior researcher at RISI Leonid Gladchenko in his work “Secrets of the “Black International” of ISIS” noted that one of the manifestations of the cross-border nature of modern radical Islamism, embodied in the practice of ISIS, was the widespread involvement of supporters of this group from different countries.
“According to estimates provided in documents of a number of international organizations and think tanks, after the appeal of ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi to Muslims of the world in June 2014 with a call to join the ranks of jihadists, the number of foreign terrorist fighters who joined ISIS grew at an unprecedentedly high rate and in 2016 it already reached 27-31 thousand people,” the expert points out. “For comparison: over the entire period of the war in Afghanistan, 20 thousand foreign fighters took part in hostilities.”
In this regard, experts are forced to admit that the decisive role in the development of ISIS was played by its massive propaganda. “It operates on the most modern media platforms, virtually on a global scale, and is characterized by flexibility and the ability to appeal to the needs of a wide variety of groups of potential “recruits”,” emphasizes Leonid Gladchenko. - The report of a special commission of the French Senate noted: “fundamentalists offer simple answers to spiritually and vitally important questions, skillfully playing with the idea of ​​belonging to a group that has a distinct identity and opposes itself to the rest of the world.” As a result, young radicals in the idea of ​​jihad acquire a “harmonious system of values” that they could not find in their country.” Both ours and yours In the process of the formation of ISIS, as mentioned above, the actions of the West played a significant role. But the strengthening of this terrorist organization took place with the tacit consent and inaction of Western countries. At the same time, the arguments and evidence brought by the Russian side about the presence of sources of financing terrorism and military assistance from countries in the region fell on deaf ears. And this position remained until the very end of the military campaign in Syria. Not long ago, the Russian Ministry of Defense was forced to state that the operation to liberate the city of Abu Kemal, carried out by government forces of the Syrian Arab Republic with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, revealed facts of direct interaction and support for ISIS terrorists from the US-led “international coalition”. In particular, its aircraft tried to interfere with Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft, ensuring the safe withdrawal of retreating militants. Coalition strike aircraft entered the airspace over a 15-kilometer zone around Abu Kamal to impede the work of Russian aerospace forces, although a ban on coalition aircraft flights had previously been agreed upon and approved by the Joint Air Operations Center at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
Such actions, the Russian Ministry of Defense later noted, indicated that the rapid advance of Syrian troops in Abu Kemal thwarted US plans to create “pro-American” authorities uncontrolled by the Syrian government. The role of the forces allegedly controlling the city was supposed to be ISIS militants, “repainted” in the colors of the “Syrian Democratic Forces”: this was confirmed by the flags used by the SDF units discovered in the liberated Abu Kemal. The Russian military department accused the United States of providing cover for IS units to restore their combat capability, regroup, and use them to promote American interests in the Middle East. Previously, it was established that American instructors took part in the creation of the so-called “New Syrian Army” - a military formation created from among former militants - in a refugee camp in the province of Al-Hasakah. The core of the group consisted of more than four hundred terrorists, who freely left Raqqa in a convoy back in October.
In July 2017, the Washington Post reported that U.S. officials had been secretly training and arming Syrian rebels from 2013 until mid-2017, when the Donald Trump administration ended the training program, in part out of fear that American weapons might end up in the wrong hands. At the same time, according to another American publication, Wired Magazine, the US government did not respond to numerous requests to comment on this situation.
“The government also refused to say whether the United States violated the terms of the end-user certificate or whether it complied with the terms of the UN Arms Trade Treaty, which it signed along with 130 other countries,” the newspaper noted.

Don't step on the same rake... Since the beginning of the Arab Spring, power in a number of states in the region has passed to leaders with a strong Islamic radical agenda, again supported by the West. And in Syria and Iraq, “black holes” appeared on the map - terrorist enclaves uncontrolled by the authorities. According to analysts, the presence of ISIS or groups under its control has been noted to varying degrees in Afghanistan, Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Nigeria, Somalia, and Congo. Terrorist emissaries also appear in Algeria, Indonesia, Lebanon, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, the Philippines, and the Russian North Caucasus. In 2014, the total area of ​​territory controlled by ISIS reached 110 thousand square km, and the population living on it was 8 million people. After the proclamation of the so-called “caliphate” and the unification of its supporters, ISIS turned into the richest terrorist organization and by the beginning of the operation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria was the largest illegal military force in the region, one of the main threats to world security. The terrorists were armed with not only all types of small arms, but also anti-aircraft weapons, including man-portable missile systems of various modifications, artillery, as well as armored vehicles, represented by tanks and combat vehicles. The “budget” of the terrorists, formed by funds from robberies, was also impressive , hostage-taking for ransom, drug trafficking and illegal oil sales. The terrorists also received financial assistance from private investors, primarily from the Gulf countries. Member of the Iranian parliament Mohammad Saleh Jokar claimed that IS received financial assistance (including from Saudi Arabia) in the amount of up to $4 billion. Speaking in September 2015 at the plenary session of the 70th session of the UN General Assembly, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized: aggressive external intervention in the situation in a number of countries in the Middle East and North Africa led to the fact that instead of reforms, state institutions and the very way of life were simply unceremoniously destroyed.
“I just want to ask those who created this situation: “Do you even understand now what you have done?” - the Russian leader then said his famous remark, and he himself answered no, “I’m afraid this question will hang in the air, because the policy, which is based on self-confidence, the conviction of one’s exclusivity and impunity, has not been abandoned.”
By the way, at the same session of the UN General Assembly, the President of Russia said words that today, after the completion of the elimination of the terrorist scum in Syria, acquire special significance.
“We consider any attempts to flirt with terrorists, and even more so to arm them, not just short-sighted, but a fire hazard,” Vladimir Putin emphasized then. “As a result, the global terrorist threat may increase critically and reach new regions of the planet.”
Against the backdrop of obvious attempts by the United States to preserve and rehabilitate ISIS in one form or another, this thesis looks especially relevant.

The wave of terrorist attacks that has swept across European countries in recent days makes us think once again about the sources of the threat. Director of the FSB of the Russian Federation Alexander Bortnikov said on April 11 that the backbone of terrorist groups in Russia consists of immigrants from the CIS countries who arrived in the Russian Federation in labor migration flows. Then, as the intelligence services believe, they launch active recruitment activities among the migrant community, recruiting terrorist attack executors. In previous publications, “Eurasia.Expert” analyzed (prohibited organization) in the countries of the post-Soviet space. How big is the threat inside Russia, and how is it related to neighboring countries?

At the end of June 2014, the leader of the Islamic State (a banned organization) Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi declared himself caliph, and a few days after that he called Russia and the United States the leaders of the enemies of the caliphate and several times mentioned the Caucasus among the regions where the rights of Muslims are suppressed by force. Previously, international Islamist organizations did not list Russia among their main enemies.

Speaking about the potential threat that the Islamic State may pose to Russia, it is worth noting that this danger comes from:

1) the possible prospect of the Islamic State using Muslims in the North Caucasus and the Volga region to organize unrest or terrorist attacks;

2) Russian citizens who returned to their homeland, who fought in the ranks of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, and who may continue their terrorist activities in Russia;

3) individual terrorist attacks that IS can organize to achieve its goals, for example, as revenge for Russian assistance, including military assistance, to Syria and Iraq.

North Caucasus

IS militants published several video messages threatening to “ignite the fire of jihad in the North Caucasus” and carry out several terrorist attacks against Russia. One of the Islamists turned to Russian President Vladimir Putin, declaring his intention to liberate Chechnya and the Caucasus and create an Islamic caliphate there. Participants in the video called the Russian President an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who uses Russian weapons in the fight against militants.

In June 2015, the leaders of a number of gangs in Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia declared allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The terrorists of the Caucasus Emirate took the oath. After this, the leaders of the Islamic State announced the creation of a vilayet in the North Caucasus.

Speaking about the threats affecting the North Caucasus, it is necessary to note the changed political and economic situation in Chechnya and Kabardino-Balkaria. The choice of the elite of these republics in favor of peaceful integration into the system of state power in Russia predetermined the fading of any large-scale resistance, which could be observed in the mid-1990s - early 2000s.

Over the past two or three years, the situation in the North Caucasus has stabilized significantly, although it is too early to celebrate victory over religious extremism.

In 2013-2015 Russian law enforcement agencies carried out a large-scale cleanup in the North Caucasus region, significantly reducing the degree of terrorist threat. A significant part of the militants were eliminated, and many militants chose not to remain in the North Caucasus and move to the Islamic State.

To organize mass jihad in the republics of the North Caucasus, there are no necessary prerequisites: socio-economic situation, support of local elites, financial support. However, the listed facts do not negate the possibility of committing individual terrorist attacks.

Volga region

The process of Muslims leaving the Volga region for the “hot spots” of Eastern countries for religious and ideological reasons began in 1999, when small groups of Islamists left for Tajikistan, and from there to Afghanistan. The US invasion of this country in 2001 did not stop those wishing to go to jihad in Afghanistan and Pakistan from the Volga region.

The outbreak of the civil war in Syria, which soon transformed into “jihad” with the participation of the international Islamist international, led to the reorientation of Volga radical Islamists to this country instead of the former Chechnya and Afghanistan. Getting to Syria from Tatarstan was quite simple: newly minted mujahideen came to Turkey under the guise of tourists, and then crossed the Syrian-Turkish border without much difficulty.

Russian intelligence services, especially in the Volga regions, initially refrained from openly acknowledging the problem. However, it was impossible to hide the obvious facts of leaving for “jihad” for long. In September 2012, the head of the FSB Directorate for Naberezhnye Chelny confirmed the appearance of Islamists from Tatarstan in Syria. Since 2013, the facts of the participation of Russians began to be openly recognized in the central office of the FSB. Estimates of the number of Russians who went to fight in Syria changed upward as the war continued. In 2015, the number of Volga region Muslims who joined IS was estimated by the FSB at 200 people.

In 2012-2014 The topic of participation of Volga region Muslims in the war in Syria was raised mainly by representatives of the expert community. The official Muslim clergy of the regions of the Volga Federal District avoided its open discussion. This was mainly due to the influence of local government authorities who were unwilling to talk about this phenomenon as a problem. In some republics, authorities tried to hush up this issue in order to maintain a positive image of their regions. The problem also lies in the fact that influential religious organizations that have authority among local Muslims have not yet made theological conclusions (and adherence to such conclusions is mandatory for Muslims) regarding the inadmissibility of taking part in hostilities in Syria. A number of experts explain this inaction by fear of incurring wrath from radicals.

The IS problem for the Volga region is a new stage in the history of the Islamic community in the region. However, at present, representatives of security forces are quite quickly neutralizing this threat. In addition, a significant number of Volga region Islamists die during the fighting.

The Volga region public has an extremely negative attitude towards IS due to the wide publicity that the crimes of the militants of this organization have received (public mass executions, slave trade, destruction of world cultural heritage sites).

Crimea

Crimea, like other regions of Russia with a large Muslim population, is considered a potentially unstable region, since it is considered by Islamists as one of the promising directions for spreading their ideology and influence, as well as recruiting local Muslims into their ranks.

Crimean political scientists say that in the few materials about the connection between IS and Crimea, the situation is presented much worse than it actually is. But at the same time, experts do not exclude attempts to unite extremist organizations in the republic, which could take advantage of the discontent of certain groups of Crimean Tatars, as well as the activities of a number of extremist organizations on the peninsula.

As for the Muslims of Crimea who joined the Islamic State militants, their number appears to be extremely small, which means that if they return to their homeland, further developments will depend entirely on the competent work of the special services.

This confirms that a large number of Russian natives are currently fighting in the ranks of IS. Officials have different estimates of the number of Russian citizens fighting in Syria and Iraq. Back in the summer of 2013, when the organization had not become so famous, the head of the FSB, Alexander Bortnikov, spoke about 200 militants from Russia fighting in Syria on the side of radical Islamists; and after a couple of months his deputy named the number twice as much. The Chief Mufti of Syria, Ahmad Badreddin Hassoun, spoke, citing the Royal Institute of Defense Studies, of 1,700 mercenaries from Chechnya and another 250 from Central Russia.

In September 2015, First Deputy Director of the FSB, Army General Sergei Smirnov, announced that 2,400 Russian citizens had joined IS. All these militants could theoretically return to their homeland and try to spark a new hotbed of jihadism. The head of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, called the return of mercenaries from the Middle East to Russia “a very dangerous threat.” The leaders of the CIS Anti-Terrorism Center and the Collective Security Treaty Organization also spoke about this.

The militants can return through Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, with which Russia does not have a visa regime. Hypothetically, this poses a threat of destabilization, but not a global one.

Returning militants may indeed try to briefly destabilize the situation in one point or another in Russia, but without reliable funding such activity is unlikely to take on the character of deeply structured resistance, as was the case during the active phase of hostilities in the North Caucasus.

The reason for Moscow's concern in connection with the activation of representatives of the Islamic State was the announcement of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which is quite popular among the insolvent sections of Uzbek society, joining the Islamic State. And this forces it to take prompt measures to minimize this challenge, taking into account the prospect of possible penetration of representatives of this organization into the Russian Federation under the guise of workers.

To summarize all of the above, it should be noted that, although IS poses a potential threat to Russia, this organization does not yet pose an immediate danger.

Vladimir Vysotsky, Islamic scholar and Arabist (Minsk, Belarus)

The Islamist terrorist group ISIS is considered by many experts to be the main threat to the world at present. This organization began as a separate cell of al-Qaeda, but then became a completely independent force. It is now the largest terrorist organization in the world. The history of ISIS will be the subject of our study.

Background to the creation of ISIS

First, let's find out what caused the emergence of ISIS, what is the background of its formation. To do this, we will have to look back to the 90s of the last century.

At the origins of the group, which later transformed into ISIS, stood Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Born in 1966, as a young man he fought against the Soviet army in Afghanistan. After returning to Jordan, he was engaged in activities directed against the existing regime in the country, for which he was subjected to a seven-year imprisonment in 1992.

In 1999, immediately after his release, al-Zakrawi created an Islamist organization of the Salafi persuasion, which took the name “Monotheism and Jihad.” The initial goal of this group was to overthrow the royal dynasty in Jordan, which, according to al-Zakrawi, pursued anti-Islamic policies. It was this organization that formed the foundation on the basis of which the “state” of ISIS was formed in the future.

After the start of the American operation in Iraq in 2001, representatives of the organization “Monotheism and Jihad” launched active activities in the country. It is believed that al-Zarqawi at this time became one of the organizers of another large group, Ansar al-Islam. It operated mainly in and around the Sunni regions of Iraq. Its formal leader is Faraj Ahmad Najmuddin, who is located in and directs the activities of Ansar al-Islam from there. From 2003 to 2008, the group adopted the name Jamaat Ansar al-Sunna, but then returned to its previous name. After the Allied intervention in Iraq in 2003, many of its fighters joined the ranks of the Monotheism and Jihad organization. Currently, Ansar al-Islam is one of ISIS's main allies.

Alliance with al-Qaeda

It was after the overthrow of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein in 2003 that the organization “Monotheism and Jihad” firmly established itself in this country. She carried out a series of high-profile terrorist attacks; public executions with beheadings became her signature feature. Later, this bloody tradition, the purpose of which was intimidation, was adopted by the heir to the organization “Monotheism and Jihad” - the ISIS group. “Monotheism and Jihad” became the main anti-government force in Iraq, whose goal was to overthrow the transitional government, destroy Shiite supporters and form an Islamic state.

In 2004, al-Zarqawi swore an oath of allegiance to the leader of the world's largest Islamic extremist organization at that time, Al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden. From that time on, the group “Monotheism and Jihad” began to be called “Al-Qaeda in Iraq.” The history of ISIS has taken a new turn since then.

Increasingly, the group led by al-Zarqawi began to use terrorist methods not against the American military, but against Iraqi citizens - mainly Shiites. This caused a decline in al-Qaeda in Iraq's popularity among the local population. In order to regain ratings and consolidate the forces of resistance to the coalition forces, in 2006, al-Zarqawi organized the “Mujahideen Consultative Meeting,” which included, in addition to al-Qaeda, 7 other large Islamist groups of the Sunni persuasion.

But in June 2006, al-Zarqawi was killed by American bombings. Abu Ayyub al-Masri became the new leader of the organization.

Islamic State in Iraq

After the removal of al-Zarqawi, the history of ISIS again changed its direction. This time there was a trend towards a break with al-Qaeda.

In October 2006, the Mujahideen Consultative Assembly proclaimed the creation of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), and did so independently, without waiting for consent from the al-Qaeda leadership. But the final break with this terrorist organization was still far away.

The Iraqi city of Baqubah was proclaimed the capital of this “state”. Its first emir was Abu Umar al-Baghdadi, about whose past it is only known that he is a citizen of Iraq and previously headed the “Consultative Assembly of the Mujahideen.” In 2010, he was killed in Tikrit after a missile attack by US-Iraqi forces. In the same year, the leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, who was also considered one of the leaders of ISIS, also died.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was previously held in an American concentration camp on suspicion of extremism, became the new emir of ISI. His compatriot Abu Suleiman an-Nasir becomes the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq. At the same time, he was appointed military adviser to the ISI, and in 2014 he became the head of the military council of the Islamic State.

Education of ISIS

The emergence of ISIS as an organization, as we see, dates back to the first decade of the 21st century, but this name itself appeared only in April 2013, when ISI expanded its activities to Syria, that is, to the countries of the Levant. That's why ISIS stands for Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. The name of this organization in Arabic transliteration is Daesh. Almost as soon as ISIS began active operations, it began to attract more and more fighters from other Islamist groups. In addition, militants from the EU, USA, Russia and a number of other countries began to flock to this organization.

Syria is engulfed in a civil war, which is being waged between government troops and a number of anti-government groups of various kinds. Therefore, Syrian ISIS was able to easily take control of large areas of the country. This organization was especially successful in 2013-2014. The capital was moved from Baqubah to the Syrian city of Ar-Raqqa.

At the same time, ISIS's territory reached its greatest expansion in Iraq. The group brought under its control almost the entire Anbar province, as well as the significant cities of Tikrit and Mosul, during the uprising against the Shiite government of Iraq.

The final departure from al-Qaeda

Initially, the ISIS “state” tried to act in alliance with other rebel forces in Syria against the Assad regime, but in January 2014 it entered into open armed conflict with the main opposition force, the Free Syrian Army.

Meanwhile, the final break between ISIS and al-Qaeda took place. The latter's leadership demanded that IS withdraw militants from Syria and return to Iraq. The only representative of al-Qaeda in Syria was to be the al-Nusra Front group. It was she who officially represented the international terrorist organization in the country. ISIS refused to comply with the demands of al-Qaeda leadership. As a result, in February 2014, al-Qaeda stated that it had no affiliation with ISIS and therefore could not control the organization or be responsible for its actions.

Soon after, fighting broke out between Daesh militants and the al-Nusra Front.

Proclamation of the Caliphate

The history of ISIS takes on completely different dimensions after the proclamation of the caliphate. This happened at the end of June 2014. Thus, the organization began to lay claim not only to primacy in the region, but to primacy throughout the Islamic world, with the prospect of establishing a global Caliphate. After that, it began to be called simply “Islamic State” (IS), without specifying a specific region. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi accepted the title of caliph.

The declaration of the caliphate, on the one hand, contributed to further strengthening the authority of the Islamic State in the eyes of many Muslim radicals, which led to an increase in the flow of militants wishing to join the group. But on the other hand, this caused the growth of even greater confrontation with other Islamist organizations that did not want to put up with the primacy of IS.

Allied operation against IS

Meanwhile, there was growing awareness of the danger posed by the Islamic State, as ISIS's territory continued to expand.

Since mid-2014, the United States began providing direct military assistance to the Iraqi government to combat ISIS. A little later, Türkiye, Australia, France, and Germany intervened in the conflict. They coordinated bombing of IS militants' locations throughout 2014-2015 both in Iraq and in the Syrian state.

Since September 2015, at the request of the Syrian government, Russia began to take part in the fight against IS. Its air forces also began to strike the extremist group's locations. True, it was not possible to reach agreements on coordinating actions between Russia and the coalition of Western countries due to a number of contradictions.

Military assistance from the international contingent contributed to the fact that the territory of ISIS in Iraq was significantly reduced. The militants’ offensive in Syria was also stopped and a number of key positions were recaptured from them. ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was seriously wounded.

But it is too early to talk about the coalition’s victory over the Islamic State.

Spread of IS

The main arena of operations of the Islamic State is the territory of Iraq and Syria. But the organization has spread its influence to other countries. ISIS directly controls some areas in Libya and Lebanon. In addition, the group has recently begun to actively operate in Afghanistan, recruiting former Taliban supporters into its ranks. The leaders of the Nigerian Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram swore an oath of allegiance to the caliph of the Islamic State, and the territories controlled by this organization began to be called the province of the Islamic State. In addition, IS has its branches in Egypt, the Philippines, Yemen and many other government entities.

The leaders of the Islamic state claim control over all territories that were once part of the Arab Caliphate and the Ottoman Empire, to which they consider themselves heirs.

Organizational structure of the Islamic State

The Islamic state by its form of government can be called Caliph. It is a body that has an advisory function called Shura. Analogues of ministries are the Intelligence Council, the military and legal council, the health service, etc. The organization consists of many cells in many countries of the world, with fairly strong autonomy in management.

The territory claimed by IS is divided into 37 wilayats (administrative units).

Prospects

The Islamic State is a relatively young terrorist organization that is spreading across the Earth at a very high speed. It claims leadership not only in the Middle East region, but throughout the Muslim world. An increasing number of radically minded people are joining its ranks. IS's methods of fighting are extremely brutal.

Only coordinated and timely actions of the international community can stop the further advancement of this organization.