Relatively recently, less than 100 years ago, the birth rate in most European countries, as well as Russia, was quite high. The European continent differed in its level of economic development from other countries. All this was based on population growth of approximately 2-3% per year. But modern conditions life, changes in thinking and other circumstances led to a demographic crisis throughout the world.
This is a process that requires decisions at the state level. A demographic crisis is a low population growth or its complete absence. This occurs as a result of a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in the death rate. However, a demographic crisis can mean not only a decrease in the population, but also an overabundance. IN modern world The main problem is population decline.
In the case when the birth rate falls over a certain time and does not exceed the mortality rate, a tendency arises, that is, its reproduction does not occur. The number of women of childbearing age is declining.
In this situation, measures must be taken to increase the average number of children per woman of childbearing age.
Since ancient times, there have been disputes about the need for population growth. Some scientists are of the opinion that this is unacceptable. As a result of this process, strong population migration occurs.
The consequences of the demographic crisis affected everyone and affected poor and rich, developing and developed countries.
There are several reasons for this situation:
Many agree that urbanization is to blame for this. An agricultural society is turning into a more industrial one. People who moved to the city stopped giving birth large number children. However, this theory also has opponents who cite Great Britain, Brazil, and Argentina as examples. There, despite earlier urbanization, population growth remained stable.
The second reason is some loss, a large increase in real estate prices, the desire for numerous purchases, feminism, etc. Individually, these reasons are not the driving factor of the demographic crisis. Basically, this is a combination of several circumstances that affect varying degrees.
The former USSR countries found themselves in the worst situation. There the demographic crisis has reached enormous proportions. Every year the population of these countries decreases by 0.5%.
Demographics are also an issue. In the 90s, when changes took place, the country's economy was at a very low level. This could not but affect the lives of the population. Emigration to other countries began. Its size has reached incredible and even catastrophic levels. This further harmed the country’s economy and the development of science, because there was an outflow of intellectuals.
Deterioration demographic situation attracted the attention of the country's leadership. A policy concept was developed and adopted regarding this long-term project lasting until 2015.
The demographic situation is very important for the full functioning of the state. This is, first of all, strengthening the status of Russia in terms of geographical and political location. Population growth is important for maintaining the integrity of the country and its territories. Demographic stability is essential to national security.
To improve the situation, it is necessary to develop social programs designed to support large and young families. Problems in the field of healthcare, education, culture, etc. also require solutions.
Economically developed countries
The economically developed countries of the world have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in natural population growth rates (see Table 1). Until recently, there were almost no very significant differences in this regard between them. However, recently, quite strong differentiation has also begun to occur in this group of countries, and now this group can also be divided into three subgroups.
Table 1. European countries with negative natural population growth
The first subgroup includes countries where a fairly favorable demographic situation still exists, characterized by at least average fertility and natural increase rates, ensuring expanded population reproduction. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the reproduction formula (fertility - mortality = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15‰ - 9‰ = 6‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. At this rate of population growth, doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland - in 250 years).
The second subgroup includes countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate dropped to 1.5 back in the mid-90s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of birth rates over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.
Finally, the third subgroup unites countries with negative natural population growth, or, more simply, with its natural decline (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with “minus” population growth only in 1990-2000. grew from 3 to 15. All of them are in Europe.
It would not be a mistake to say that the countries of the third (and in fact the second) subgroup have already entered a period of demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated reasons. First of all, these include a rapid, and sometimes downright collapse, decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of people in the population young. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below. Further, the increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of increasing levels of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of people of older (“non-reproductive”) age in the population, that is, as they say, to aging from above.
However, it would be wrong to try to explain the onset of the crisis only by demographic reasons. Its emergence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medical, social, and moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as a family crisis. The average family size in the countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2-3 people. And it has become much less stable - with an increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without formal marriage, and a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.
If in the early 60s the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in countries foreign Europe ranged from 100 to 200, then at the end of the 90s it increased to 200-300. Even more egregious are the data on illegitimate children, the proportion of which during the same time increased by 5-10 times. In Great Britain and France, for example, the proportion of illegitimate children exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark - 40%. But the “absolute champions” in this regard were and remain Sweden, Norway and Iceland with an indicator of over 50%.
All these reasons and factors are combined in different ways in the countries listed in Table 2. Thus, in Germany and Italy, the influence of demographic factors does seem to predominate. The post-socialist countries of Central-Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) were affected by the fact that in the 90s they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and the transition from a command-planned to a market economy. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in the CIS member countries (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 90s.
1. T.R. Malthus as the founder of the science of population growth.
Years of life of Thomas Malthus: 1766-1834. He was an English clergyman, then professor of modern history and political economy at the East India Company College. His main book, “An Essay on the Law of Population, or an Exposition of the Past and Present Effect of this Law on the Welfare of the Human Race,” was written in 1789.
Malthus argued that food production in the world is growing in an arithmetic progression (1,2,3,4,5...), while the world's population is growing in a geometric progression (1,2,4,8,16...). This will inevitably lead to a situation where most people face the threat of starvation. Only the strongest and most cruel will be able to survive in such conditions. These ideas inspired Darwin and Wallace to create the theory of the struggle for survival in biology. So that people could avoid poverty and starvation, epidemics and wars for a piece of bread, Malthus proposed the following measures to solve the problem of overpopulation:
· abstinence from early marriages,
· prevention of too large family growth,
· refusal of low-income people to marry,
· adherence to strict moral standards before marriage,
· elimination of social assistance programs for the poor.
However, he opposed birth control, believing that if married couples could easily limit the number of children, the primary incentive for socio-economic progress would be lost: people would lead an idle lifestyle and society would stagnate. Subsequently, the idea of birth control as a means of combating a disproportionate increase in population began to play a role main role in the concept of so-called neo-Malthusianism.
In the social hierarchy, people are arranged according to the principle of the fittest, that is, the elite are the fittest people, the mob are the least fit people.
2. Demography.
Demography is the science of the size, composition and change of population. IN recent years Russia's population was declining at a catastrophic rate. Because of this, schools, kindergartens and nurseries began to close. Most people blame the economic crisis for this, but the example of Western countries shows that economic prosperity does not always lead to higher birth rates. Population growth rates are among the most dramatic indicators:
· 1 million years ago the population of the entire world was only about 125,000 people,
· 300,000 years ago – 1 million people,
· by Christmas - 285 million people,
· in 1930 – 2 billion people,
· in 1960 – 3 billion people,
· by the beginning of 2009, the world population was 6.6 billion people.
Main reasons population explosion: The population explosion began in Europe in the 19th century. In the Middle Ages in Europe there were high levels of birth and death rates, many children were born, but they could not be treated and a large proportion of children died from epidemics and famine, so population growth was minimal. For example, Peter 1 had 14 children from two wives, of whom only 3 survived. In modern times, the birth rate remained high, but medical care improved and welfare increased. This caused a population explosion during the period of industrialization.
The reasons for the decline in fertility in modern times developed countries: In the 20th century Birth and death rates in Russia, Europe and North America decreased, so population growth became minimal again, the population of some countries even began to decline. This is especially dangerous against the backdrop of a demographic explosion in Asia, Africa and Latin America. This demographic situation inevitably leads to migration or even invasion of populations from Asia, Africa and Latin America to Europe, North America and Russia. The first harbinger of such an invasion was Islamic global terrorism, the war in Chechnya, and American operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are forecasts about the possibility of a Third World War against the West Islamic states. Russia is on the verge of a demographic explosion; on the southern borders of Russia there are countries with high rates of population growth - China and Islamic countries. China is trying to combat excessive population growth with taxes on the second child, which has led to the emergence of “underground”, unregistered children. In Russia there was a demographic explosion in the 19th century. - early 20th century But the population increase resulting from this explosion was destroyed during the terrible historical cataclysms that befell the Russian people in the 20th century. The Soviet Union had demographic problems in the late 1950s as a consequence of World War II, as very few children were born during the war and many men died during the war. Today, many Russian people migrate from neighboring countries to Russia. In ancient times, an example of migration was the great migration of peoples - the Huns, Avars, Goths, Suevi, Vandals, Burgundians, Franks, Angles, Saxons, Lombards, Slavs in the 4th-7th centuries AD. In the 7th-9th centuries AD. There was a migration of Arabs, Normans, Proto-Bulgarians, and Magyars. Migration from Europe to the United States was particularly intense in the 19th and 20th centuries.
3. Other reasons for the decline and increase in fertility in the global world.
More boys are born than girls, but men die at a higher rate early age compared to women. The small number of teenagers leads to a labor shortage. Urban residents have fewer children than rural residents, since for rural residents many children mean a lot of hands on subsidiary plots. Highly educated women have few children, since during the childbearing period of their lives they are forced to spend time primarily on education and career. Before deciding to have a child, parents calculate possible costs and their income. In a large family, parents oppose their children receiving a high level of education. Many children die before the age of one year because they do not have sufficiently developed immunity to diseases. The mortality rate is affected by sanitary conditions (quality of drinking water, etc.), quality of medical care, and quality of nutrition.
4.Modern demographic crisis and depopulation in Russia.
At the end of 2009, the population of Russia was 141 million 927 thousand people. Population growth in the country has stopped since 1991; the birth rate in the RSFSR fell below the level of simple generation replacement back in the 1960s. Today, the mortality rate is 1.5 times higher than the birth rate, the population is declining by several hundred thousand people annually. A negative feature of Russia is the fact that the birth rate has fallen to the level of developed countries, while the mortality rate has remained at the level of developing countries. Alcohol mortality in modern Russia (600-700 thousand people per year) is associated with the world's highest level of consumption of legal and illegal (surrogate) alcoholic beverages. Population decline has been somewhat contained by immigration - primarily of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers from Kazakhstan, Central Asia and Transcaucasia - but these reserves are now dwindling due to inflexible immigration policies. By 2050, Russia's population is estimated to be between 83 and 115 million people According to the 2002 Population Census, the population of Russia fell by 1.8 million from 1989 to 2002. Every minute in Russia 3 people are born, and 4 die. The global trend is the opposite: the ratio of births to deaths is 2.6. Mortality is especially high among Russian men, whose average life expectancy is 61.4 years. Life expectancy for women is 73.9 years. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov at a government meeting on February 17, 2010, the increase in the average life expectancy of the Russian population has been going on for several years. In 2009, this figure increased by more than one year (1.2 years) and averaged more than 69 years for both men and women. In 2009, 1.764 million children were born in the Russian Federation, which is 50 thousand or almost 3% more than in 2008, while the number of deaths decreased by 62 thousand or 3%. According to Zhukov, natural population decline has decreased by more than 30% compared to 2008 levels. “For the first time in 19 years, we are seeing natural population growth in the Ural and Siberian federal districts,” said the Deputy Prime Minister. He also said that, according to preliminary data, at the end of the year, the population of Russia, taking into account migration, increased for the first time in 15 years.
5.Mortality and life expectancy in Russia.
6.Fertility.
The birth rate in Russia does not reach the level necessary for simple reproduction of the population. The fertility rate is 1.32 (the number of children per woman), while for simple population reproduction a fertility rate of 2.11-2.15 is required. At the beginning of the 20th century, Russia had the highest birth rate in Europe. The most rapid decline in fertility occurred in the 1930s and 1940s. By 1965, the birth rate in the RSFSR dropped below the level of simple reproduction of generations. In the 1980s, there was an increase in the birth rate due to government policy measures. In the late 1980s, the birth rate began to decline again. Against the backdrop of rising mortality, a demographic decline occurred (mortality exceeds birth rate). Regional differences in fertility are gradually smoothing out. If in the 60s the total fertility rate in Moscow was 1.4, and in Dagestan - 5, then to date this figure in Moscow has hardly changed, and in Dagestan has fallen to 2.13.
7.Migration situation in Russia.
Russia is in second place in the world (after the United States) in terms of the number of legal and illegal immigrants. There are more than 13 million of them in Russia. - 9% of the population. In 2006, a law was passed that significantly simplified labor migration. One of the factors worsening the demographic situation is the illegal trafficking of young women of childbearing age. According to some estimates, hundreds of thousands of women were taken abroad by deception, but the state practically does not fight this phenomenon.
There are two opposing points of view on attracting immigrants:
· Attracting migrants will increase the competitiveness of the Russian economy due to cheaper labor. To maintain numbers
population at one level it is necessary to attract at least 700 thousand immigrants per year, and to maintain the number working population- at least 1 million per year.
· Attracting unskilled migrants does not contribute to increasing the production of goods. Economic growth in the long term can
occur only due to an increase in labor productivity - that is, due to an increase in qualifications and wage levels, and not through their reduction.
Often, among the demographic threats to Russia’s security, a possible “quiet expansion” on the part of the densely populated China in relation to the Far East is mentioned, followed by the seizure of this territory according to the “Kosovo scenario”, and for proof, the population densities of the Far East and China differ by tens of times. However, in China, due to the unfavorable climate, population density decreases from the central provinces to the north and northeast, and the border regions of Russia are often even more densely populated than the neighboring counties of China. From this we can conclude that the Russian Far East is not an overly attractive target for immigration. On Far East Today there are from 30 thousand to 200 thousand Chinese, which is not enough for “demographic expansion.” At the same time, the share of youth among the population in China is rapidly declining.
8. State demographic policy.
In 1944, awards were established in Russia for mothers of many children - “Mother - Heroine” and “Maternal Glory”. In 1952, two-week maternity leave was introduced. At the same time, it was during Stalin’s time that the birth rate fell most dramatically. From 1925 to 2000, the total fertility rate in Russia decreased by 5.59 children per woman (from 6.80 to 1.21). Of these, 3.97 children, or 71% of the total decline, occurred in the years 1925-1955 - the “Stalin era”.
In 2001, the “Concept of Demographic Development” was adopted Russian Federation for the period until 2015." In 2007, a new “Concept of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025” was adopted. In Russia, small state payments are made at the birth of a child, as well as child support assistance to low-income families. In his address to the Federal Assembly in 2006, President Vladimir Putin formulated a number of measures to stimulate the birth rate, including large payments for the birth of a second child. The corresponding law on “maternity capital”, which allows you to receive 250 thousand rubles. through participation in the mortgage, payment for education and an increase in pension savings, in effect since 2007. Left-wing political forces use the demographic problem to accuse the government of pursuing “anti-people policies” and consider it necessary to sharply increase state assistance for the birth of a child. Opponents of this point of view cite data showing that the birth rate in a country does not depend on social benefits in that country. For example, in Sweden, social benefits are much higher than in the United States, while the birth rate is lower (when compared with developing countries, where social benefits are almost non-existent and the birth rate is huge, the difference is even more noticeable). From this it is concluded that increasing payments in Russia will not lead to an increase in the birth rate. Attempts to materially stimulate the birth rate evoke a response either from marginal groups of the population or from representatives of ethnic groups who already form large families; for the middle class this is not a serious motivation.
Appendix to §37.
Results of the All-Russian Population Census of Russia in 2002.
During it, it was established that between the last two censuses, from 1989 to 2002, the population of Russia decreased by 1.8 million people to 145.2 million. National structure of the population: the number of Russians is 115.9 million, or 79, 8% of the total population, Tatars - 5.6 million, or 3.8%), Ukrainians - 2.9 million, 2%, Bashkirs - 1.7 million, 1.2%), Chuvash - 1, 6 million, 1.1%, Chechens - 1.4 million, 0.9%, Armenians - 1.1 million, 0.8%. The number of Muslim peoples was 14.5 million (10% of the population), Christians - 129 million (89%). After the census, the share of Russians decreased from 81.5% to 79.8%.
73% of Russians are urban residents, 27% are rural. Moreover, a large share of the urban population is concentrated in large cities. A third of Russia's inhabitants are concentrated in largest cities- “millionaires” (13 cities): in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Omsk, Kazan, Chelyabinsk, Rostov-on-Don, Ufa, Volgograd, Perm. Moscow is one of the 20 largest cities in the world. The fertility parameters of the urban and rural populations are converging. The 2002 census recorded a significant increase in the number of women compared to the number of men, which amounted to 10 million people. The ratio of men to women according to the 2002 census in Russia was 53.4% women and 46.6% men.
The census recorded an excess of the number of elderly people over the number of children:
18.1% of the population are children
61.3% - working age population
20.5% are over working age.
Global demographic crises and trends of the 20th century: first world war (1914 - 1918), Civil war(1917-1922), famine in the USSR (1932-1933), the period of collectivization and mass repression (1930-1953), World War II, deportations of peoples, post-war famine, economic crisis of the 1990s. According to demographer Anatoly Vishnevsky, the total direct and indirect demographic losses of Russia over the 20th century as a result of wars, famines, repressions, economic and social upheavals are estimated at 140-150 million people. Without all these losses, the population of Russia by the end of the twentieth century would have been twice as large as it actually was. The latest demographic crisis has been going on for more than 10 years, and, despite the absence of wars and repressions, the birth rate remains at an extremely low level, although recently it has been growing quite steadily (but, however, at a rather slow pace). Similar 10-year periods of sharp declines in fertility have been observed in almost all developed countries except Israel. This crisis is explained by the overexploitation of the population in a developed market society; At the same time, the emerging shortage of labor resources is covered by migration and the transfer of production to demographically prosperous countries. The period of the demographic crisis completely coincides with periods of “shock therapy” in all European countries of the former socialist camp.
During the 20th century. Russia's population was aging. When compared with other countries with low birth rates, it turns out that Russia's population is not the oldest. In 1990, it ranked 25th among such countries (the position was more dramatic in Japan, Italy, and Germany). Currently, the share of people aged 65 years and older in the Russian population is 13%. According to the UN scale, a population is considered old if the proportion of a given age exceeds 7%. Compared to the 1989 census, the average age of the country's residents increased by 4.3 years and amounted to 37.1 years. The aging of the population in the near future may negatively affect the development of the country's economy and raises the problem of financing the pension system. Some officials today propose raising the retirement age. But such a government decision could cause an explosion of public discontent.
Questions to think about.
1. Which of the two opposing points of view about attracting migrants seems more correct to you?
2. In your opinion, is Chinese migration dangerous for Russia?
3. In your opinion, should state benefits be increased upon the birth of a child?
4. In your opinion, should the retirement age be increased?
World (global) demographic problems affect the interests of all humanity, therefore their settlement is possible only through joint efforts. The concept of “global demographic problems,” emphasizing the special importance of population problems, began to be used in scientific literature in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
Currently, the attention of scientists in many countries is aimed at studying the problem regional differentiation of world population processes and their impact on the global economy. Contradictions between trends in demographic development individual countries increase its instability, increase the gap in levels economic development between developed and developing countries.
XX century (especially the second half) is characterized by a significant increase in the world's population. So, if in 1980 it was 4.4 billion people, in 1985 - 4.8, in 1990 - 5.3, in 2000 - 6.1, in 2013 - 7, 1 billion, then by 2025 it could reach more than 8 billion people. Such a high growth in the world population is determined by the rate of its increase in developing countries. The modern “population explosion” in its strength and significance significantly exceeds a similar “explosion” that occurred in Europe in the 19th century.
The sharp increase in population in developing countries of Africa, Asia, and South America is explained by a decrease (with the help of the world community) in mortality and the persistence of a high birth rate. Such an increase in the population in these countries complicates the solution of the socio-economic problems they face and leads to the spread of dangerous diseases, the growth of armed conflicts in them, a decrease in living standards, the transformation of the positive phenomena of migration and urbanization into negative ones, etc.
The negative consequences of rapid population growth necessitate a gradual transition from its spontaneous, uncontrolled growth to the conscious regulation of population reproduction. To solve this problem, joint actions of the entire world community are required and, consequently, the creation of an international mechanism for influencing population processes. However, the main condition for achieving this goal is the socio-economic restructuring of all areas of life of the population of developing countries and the development of regional models of demographic policy.
The economically developed countries of Europe, North America, Japan and a number of others are characterized by other problems - population decline due to low birth rates and accompanied by an aging population.
The global demographic situation requires serious scientific research on such issues as: permissible limits of the Earth's population, taking into account natural limits; the likely timing of the end of world population growth; possible ways to curb population growth in developing countries; measures aimed at reducing the rate of population decline in economically developed countries.
In the 1960s the concept was formulated bullet population growth, according to which, by the year 2000, the demographic explosion in developing countries was expected to be completed and the entire population of the Earth would be stabilized. To achieve these goals, universal birth control was proposed. The developers of the concept (for example, D. J. Baugh, D. Meadows, J. Tinbergen) believed that developing countries could pursue a policy of reducing the birth rate even in a backward economy without solving social issues, developing education, education and culture.
This concept was sharply criticized by other researchers (K. Clark, P. Kuusi, J. Simon and others). Experience of many
countries showed that without simultaneous economic, social and cultural transformations, a change in the type of population reproduction is impossible.
In economically developed countries in the second half of the 20th century. there was a sharp decline in population growth rates (in contrast to population explosion in developing countries). This was due to the fact that the compensatory post-war surge in the birth rate was quickly replaced by a drop to a level that did not ensure simple reproduction of the population. The demographic situation in developed countries gradually turned into a crisis, which was manifested in a reduction in the birth rate, a natural decline in the titular population, a family crisis, etc.
However, the most significant problem in developed countries has become the aging population and all the economic and social difficulties associated with it. The reasons for the aging of the population are primarily a decrease in fertility and mortality and an increase in life expectancy.
TO global problems population is also uncontrolled urbanization in developing countries, the crisis of large cities in a number of developed countries.
In economically developed countries with a high level of urbanization, the growth rate specific gravity The urban population can be characterized as insignificant. These countries are currently characterized by processes of suburbanization (faster growth of the population of the suburban area) and the formation of new forms of urban settlement - megacities (merger of many cities into one huge one), urban agglomerations (accumulation of settlements).
In developing countries, the leading ones are the quantitative aspects of the urbanization process and its external forms. The urban population growth rate in these countries with enormous human resources is higher than in industrialized countries.
On the one hand, in developing countries, urbanization contributes to the progress of society. However, in most of them, urbanization significantly outpaces economic development, and the influx of rural population exceeds the labor force needs of cities.
Urbanization in developing countries, with a lack of many resources, is accompanied by a number of negative phenomena: overcrowding, pollution environment, lack of drinking water, favorable conditions for the spread of epidemics, etc.
The most important consequence of urbanization is an increase in the territorial mobility of the population, i.e. migration.
Population migration is a complex and contradictory social process associated with the level of economic development, the socio-economic attractiveness of individual territories, the characteristics and uneven distribution of productive forces in different parts of the world.
On the one hand, population migration contributes to the formation of numbers and age composition population of industrialized countries through migration exchange of population with developing countries, has a certain positive impact on the balance of the labor market, changes the economic and social situation of the newly arrived population, contributes to introducing the labor force of developing countries to modern industrial culture, educating economic, technical and scientific personnel for their growing economy.
On the other hand, a massive uncontrolled influx of migrants can exacerbate the problem of employment, generating unemployment, and put strong pressure on the social infrastructure of receiving countries, thereby reducing the standard of living of the indigenous population. In addition, mass spontaneous migration can cause sharp unevenness in the distribution of population across the territory. This leads in some cases to surges in social and political activity of the population directed against migrants, and to a tightening of migration laws in receiving countries.
The above negative consequences of uncontrolled migration classify it as one of the world population problems that influence the development of demographic processes.
To assist in solving the world's demographic problems, a special United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) was established in 1969. He developed the UN program in the field of population, conducted a number of studies in the field of fertility, supported international and national educational institutions for training specialists in demography, etc.
The Foundation organized and held a number of World Population Conferences. The difference between these conferences and those previously held (1954 in Rome, 1965 in Belgrade) was that government delegations took part in them, whereas at previous conferences population specialists spoke only on their own behalf.
The first conference held by UNFPA took place in Bucharest (1974). It adopted the World Population Action Plan for 20 years.
The Second International Conference on Population took place in Mexico City (1984). It summed up the implementation of the World Plan over the past 10 years and adopted the Declaration on Population and Development.
The Third World Conference on Population and Development was held in Cairo (1994). Here the Program of Action in the field of population and development for the next 20 years was adopted. The Cairo conference once again shows that solving world demographic problems is possible with the united efforts of the entire world community.
Subsequently, the UN Commission on Population and Development repeatedly addressed the assessment and progress in activities to implement the recommendations International conference on Population and Development.
In January 2004, the European Population Forum was held in Geneva, with the theme “Demographic Challenges”
and policy measures to address them." The Forum was organized by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and UNFPA. The Forum assessed progress in the implementation of the Program of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development, held in Cairo.
The urgency and necessity of holding the forum in Europe was caused by the fact that it became the only continent where the population declined during 1999-2005, and then the natural increase rate stabilized at zero. Further declines in population and labor force could hamper Europe's sustainable development.
- See: Demographic statistics / ed. M. V. Karmanova. Ch. 11.
In the 70-90s, a demographic crisis emerged, affecting economically developed countries and countries with economies in transition. This crisis consists of a sharp decrease in population growth rates in both groups of countries and even natural decline (in Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Germany, Sweden), as well as demographic aging, reduction or stabilization of labor resources.
Demographic aging (when the proportion of the population over 60 years of age is more than 2% of its total population) is a natural, historically determined process that has irreversible consequences. At the same time, this process poses serious socio-economic problems for society - primarily an increase in the economic burden on the employed population.
Due to the fact that the countries noted (including Russia) are at the stage of demographic development characteristic of all industrial countries, a large natural population increase by modern stage impossible.
In Russia, a decrease in mortality and an increase in the birth rate to the extent that they are actually possible in our country under the most favorable developments of events can somewhat reduce the natural decline compared to the situation in the 90s. (but we cannot overcome it). The only source of population growth or at least maintaining its non-decreasing numbers can only be immigration. As for demographic aging, it is expected that in Russia in 2000-2015. A “window of demographic favor” will open. During this period, the share of the population of retirement age will remain virtually unchanged, while at the same time the share of the population of working age will increase significantly. This period must be used to reduce the mortality rate of the population, especially in younger and middle ages (this will somewhat slow down the old age), as well as to reform the social protection system and significantly increase the efficiency of the economy.