Consumer price index formula. Inflation in Russia by year Consumer price inflation coefficient

The rate of increase or decrease in the standard of living of the population, due to changes in the level of monetary income and expenses, can be correctly assessed only taking into account changes in the price level in the consumer market. Since January 1992, price information on the consumer market has been collected throughout Russia and indices have been calculated consumer prices for goods and services (CPI) is one of the most important indicators of social economic development countries. Based on the CPI, the government adjusts domestic policy in the field of finance, monetary circulation, indexes the income of various social groups population, assesses the level and rate of inflation, etc.

CPI measures change over time general level prices for goods and services purchased by the population for non-productive consumption. It is defined as the ratio of the cost of a fixed set of goods and services in the current period to its cost in the previous (base) period.

The consumer set of goods and services for which prices are recorded consists of three groups, covering food products, non-food products and paid services. The number of positions in each group is formed based on the importance of representative products and the stability of availability for sale in order to ensure representativeness and comparability of price information.

In addition to goods and services of mass consumer demand, the set also includes goods and services of optional demand: cars, gold jewelry, alcoholic beverages, etc.

Registration of prices and tariffs is carried out for a sample of cities and other settlements, selected taking into account their representativeness in reflecting the socio-economic and geographical location and the degree of saturation of the consumer market with goods. Price monitoring is carried out in the consumer market only in urban areas. This is due to the fact that price registration in rural areas is impractical, as it requires a significant increase in material and labor costs and is associated with great difficulties. In addition, as calculations show, the dynamics of consumer prices in rural areas is not much different from the dynamics of prices in the city.

Prices for a fixed set of goods and services are recorded weekly only in large cities, and for all selected localities - monthly from the 23rd to the 25th. In addition to the entire range of goods and services, there is a minimum set of essential food products. Prices for these products are recorded weekly in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the capitals of the republics of Russian Federation, regional, regional cities and centers of autonomous districts.

Note that the cost of the minimum set of food products reflects interregional differentiation of consumer prices and is not a component of the subsistence level, since when calculating the cost of this set, uniform minimum volumes of consumption for the Russian Federation as a whole are used.

Registered prices for goods and services in the consumer market are prices of actual sales, taking into account VAT, excise taxes and other indirect taxes.

Price information is collected at trade and service enterprises of all types of ownership and forms of trade organization, as well as in places where goods (services) are sold to individuals.

Rosstat calculates several consumer price indices: a consolidated CPI for the full fixed set of goods and services and for the same set without non-essential goods; CPI for certain socio-economic groups of the population with different income levels (10 decile groups of families); cost of living index at the regional and federal levels; summary price indices in general for groups of food, non-food goods and paid services.

In addition to information on prices, to calculate the CPI, information is used on the structure of actual consumer expenditures of the population for the previous year, which is calculated on the basis of indicators from a sample survey of households.

The procedure for calculating the CPI is as follows. First, individual price indices of goods (services) for a city or region are determined:

Here and are the average comparable prices of the reporting and previous period (month), calculated for a specific product (service) using the simple arithmetic average formula:

where is the sum of registered prices at different retail outlets; n – number of registered points.

A price registered in the same trade enterprise (service sector) for the same or similar quality product (service) is considered comparable.

Based on individual price indices for cities participating in observation and territorial weights, aggregate price indices of individual goods, product groups and services as a whole for the region, economic region, and the Russian Federation are determined. Data on the share of the population of the surveyed territory in the total population of Russia at the beginning of the year are used as territorial weights.

Next, based on aggregate indices for goods and services as a whole for the region, economic region, the Russian Federation and the share of expenses for their purchase in consumer expenditures of the population, aggregate price indices are determined as a whole for groups of food, non-food goods and services, as well as CPI for region, economic region, Russian Federation as a whole.

The modified Laspeyres formula is used as a formula for calculating the consolidated CPI:

where and is the price of goods y in basic and n -th periods; – quantity of goods j in the base period; – costs of goods in the base period.

The CPI is calculated monthly to the previous month, to the corresponding month of the previous year and December of the previous year, as well as on an accrual basis from the beginning of the year to the corresponding period of the previous year. To obtain the CPI for long periods while maintaining the characteristics of these goods (for a quarter, half a year, period from the beginning of the year), the chain method is used, i.e. method of multiplying monthly (quarterly) CPI. Thus, the CPI is calculated by sequentially aggregating data. First, product indices are determined, covering all types of trade, and then indices by product groups and, finally, a consolidated CPI is constructed.

One of the disadvantages of the CPI using the Laspeyres method is the use of the structure of consumer expenditures of the population for the base period as weights. In conditions of economic instability, the structure of such expenses inevitably changes (Table 25.8).

Table 25.8

Structure of consumer expenditures of Russian households in 2007-2011 (% of total)

Source: Russian statistical yearbook. 2012: stat. Sat. ∕ Rosstat. M., 2012. P. 199.

When calculating the CPI, due to the fact that the structure of household consumer spending changes throughout the year, the average annual weights are usually adjusted in order to bring the basic consumer basket as close as possible to the conditions of the current period.

Let us show the calculation of the CPI using a simplified scheme using the example of a homogeneous product group. Let us assume that as a result of observation there is information on average comparable prices for goods in five administrative regions large city(Table 25.9).

The average change in prices for poultry meat in the city as a whole can be determined by calculating weighted average indices. For example, the price index for January – December was

The same result can be approached by comparing weighted average prices for the city as a whole. They are calculated in the final row of the table. 25.9 gr. 2–5 according to the formula:

Table 25.9

Calculation of the weighted average price and price index for a homogeneous product group

Let’s also assume that for other goods of the same consumer group, they were received in the city following results price indices for January – December: product A – 1.042 (2.5%); product B – 1.062 (1.8%); product B – 1.035 (12.0%); product G (semi-finished products) – 1,060 (1.1%); product D – 1.022 (2.0%); product E – 1.015 (2.0%). Indicated in parentheses specific gravity in consumer expenditures of the population, which in general for the analyzed group of goods in the base year amounted to 27.2% of all expenditures of the population on the purchase of food, non-food goods and services.

Hence, the consolidated CPI for meat and meat products, for example, in January relative to December of the previous year will be

those. prices in January increased by an average of 3.8% compared to December.

Price indices in gr. 9 tables 25.9 can be obtained using the chain method (for example, the resulting line is: 1.046 1.017 x 1.035 = 1.101).

The CPI system calculates a monthly cost of living index, or, as it is called, a “cost of living” index. The cost of living (physiological) minimum is the cost of a set of basic food products, which corresponds to the minimum consumption levels according to the standards of the Institute of Nutrition of the Academy of Medical Sciences of the Russian Federation. When calculating the cost of this set, consumption volumes are used, formed on the basis of zoning of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (eight territorial zones are distinguished) depending on factors influencing the characteristics of food consumption. Such factors include natural and climatic conditions, gender and age composition of the population, size and structure of families, nature of settlement, level of economic development, national traditions, etc.

The choice of the list of basic food products PM is also related to the availability of these products for free sale throughout Russia. In turn, this condition allows us to reasonably analyze the dynamics of the cost of PM. It is calculated not only on average per capita, but also separately for its various categories: working population, children and pensioners.

From the data given in table. 25.10, it follows that the cost of PM increases annually, reflecting the general trend of increasing prices for food products.

Table 25.10

working population

pensioners

Source. Russian statistical yearbook. 2012: stat. Sat. / Rosstat. M., 2012. P. 199.

Regional analysis of the dynamics of the cost of living in parallel with the dynamics cash population makes it possible to assess changes not only in the level of consumer prices, but also in the standard of living of the population of various constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

• Since 2000, the methodology for calculating the PM value has been changed; an assessment is provided based on data established by the Government of the Russian Federation for the 1st–4th quarters of the corresponding year.
• For 2005–2010 indicators were calculated using the population recalculated taking into account the results of the 2010 All-Russian Population Census.
• Based on the Federal Law of October 24, 1997 No. 134-Φ3 "On living wage in the Russian Federation" since 2005, the composition of the consumer basket for determining the value of the subsistence minimum has been changed. As a result of the revision of the composition of the consumer basket, the value of the subsistence minimum increased by 7%, while for pensioners it increased by 13%, for the working population and children - by 5%.

Consumer Price Index, CPI (Consumer price index, CPI) is a price index that is calculated for a certain group of goods and services that determine the composition of the consumer basket of one resident of the country and is calculated for a certain period of time.

For example, in the United States, the consumer price index is calculated by taking 265 goods and services from 85 cities in the country as a basis. In Russia, when calculating, we take the consumer basket, the composition of which has been approved Federal law No. 44-FZ “On the consumer basket as a whole for the Russian Federation.” It includes food, non-food products, and various services.

Thus, the consumer price index is the ratio of the entire consumer basket of the base year, which is valued at prices of the current year, to the consumer basket for the base year, which is valued at prices of the base year.

If we assume that the consumer basket includes only three types of goods, then an example of calculating the indicator will look as shown in the table below.

The Consumer Price Index is one of the most common price indices that plays important role in economics, because is the basic value that serves as an impetus for the recalculation of wages, social benefits and other payments, which should occur regularly and automatically, for example, every quarter, annually or every six months, by organizations that hire workers.

The important role of the consumer price index implies the need to create a unified methodology for calculating this indicator in the economy, which at one time would reflect the degree of change in the price level. For example, when calculating the CPI, only a small and limited number of goods that fall within the minimum level of consumption will be taken into account. Based on this, the price change index will be much smaller and the growth wages does not compensate for rising inflation, which may reduce incentives to work. A similar situation can happen if, for example, the consumer basket includes goods that were produced within the country. In such a situation, with a high level of centralization, it is necessary to redistribute the rise in prices for consumer goods. For example, between goods such as Kalashnikov assault rifles and tarpaulin boots, the prices of which can be artificially reduced by the government of the country.

The calculation method itself also plays an important role. For example, consider the following method for calculating the consumer price index, which is correct from a mathematical point of view and is even recommended for calculating the CPI, but gives a slightly different result than in the case shown above. The formula looks like this:

By determining the share of each group of goods included in the usual consumer basket and substituting prices into the formula, we get:

When calculating indices, statistical accuracy entails the creation of a single base and therefore the consumer price index in a country is based on a single base, which represents the base year's production volume or common shares of goods in the consumer basket. As a result, the CPI does not reflect the impact of price changes on changes in the share of consumption of any good. In addition, the price index cannot estimate what percentage of the price increase is attributed to the qualitative improvement of the product itself. For example, a car from 1960 and a car from 1990 differ significantly in their quality characteristics.

At the end of 2018, the Russian economy set a record for inflation – however, a positive one. The figure for the year was 2.5% (previously the government predicted an inflation rate of 4%). Such low inflation is good for the consumer, who is no longer too surprised by rising prices in stores. But this is also a reflection of the crisis in the Russian economy, a sign of weak economic activity. What is inflation in Russia in 2019 - official data from Rosstat reflect this indicator today.

Rosstat's accounting of inflation levels

First of all, it is worth starting with this question - whether Rosstat is involved in calculating the level of inflation in Russia in principle. The fact is that this department provides slightly different information - Rosstat calculates the consumer price index. Although this value is one of the most important indicators when calculating inflation in Russia, it is still not the only one. Periodic reports on inflation in Russia are made by another department, namely the Ministry of Economic Development.

In particular, on April 16, 2018, the Ministry of Economic Development presented its forecast for annual inflation based on the results of April.

Consumer price indices as a percentage

The consumer price index in 2018, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, amounted to 100.4% in May, from the beginning of the year - 101.6% (in May 2017 - 100.4%, from the beginning of the year - 101.7%).

In May, in 23 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the increase in consumer prices was 0.5% or more, of which in the Novosibirsk region - 0.9% as a result of an increase in prices for non-food products by 1.3% and in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug - 0.8% as a result of an increase in prices for non-food goods and services by 1.9% and 1.0%, respectively.

In Moscow and St. Petersburg, the consumer price index for the month amounted to 100.4% (from the beginning of the year - 101.8% and 102.0%, respectively).

The decline in prices for fruits and vegetables had a significant impact on the dynamics of consumer prices for food products. Thus, cucumbers fell in price by 16.9%, bananas - by 12.4%, tomatoes - by 10.5%, garlic - by 4.1%, grapes - by 2.2%, oranges - by 1.4%. At the same time, lemons became more expensive by 19.9%, fresh white cabbage - by 16.6%, beets - by 11.7%, carrots - by 7.3%, onions - by 4.7%, apples – by 2.9%.

The consumer price index for 2018, according to Rosstat, recorded a decrease in prices for most of the observed types of pasta and cereal products. Thus, buckwheat became cheaper by 2.9%, semolina - by 0.6%, peas and beans - by 0.5%, Hercules oatmeal - by 0.4%. At the same time, millet prices increased by 2.0%.

Prices for live and chilled fish, frozen squid, chilled and frozen cut salmon fish increased by 1.0-1.3%, pork, chilled and frozen chicken, black long tea, frozen fish fillets, bakery products made from premium flour piece - by 0.6-0.8%

What annual inflation is expected in 2020

Annual inflation is the inflation rate over the past 12 months. That is, not for the calendar year as such, but for the past 365 days. Annual inflation at the end of April 2018 will reflect how much the ruble depreciated between May 1, 2017 and April 30, 2018.

The Ministry of Economic Development's forecast in this regard is all the more interesting because at the beginning of April 2018, the Russian national currency experienced a serious shake-up, when the dollar exchange rate soared from less than 58 rubles to 64 rubles (and on the stock exchange - even up to 65 rubles per dollar). It is clear that the rise in the dollar exchange rate and the decline in the value of the ruble are a serious reason for the rise in inflation in Russia.

However, the Ministry of Economic Development is not inclined to exaggerate the significance of what happened with the ruble last week. According to the forecast presented by the ministry’s economists, the annual inflation rate in April 2018 will be 2.3-2.6 percent.

As noted by the Ministry of Economic Development, the fall of the ruble in April will have an impact on inflation in Russia only if its effect lasts long enough. At the moment, we see that the dollar and euro rates are declining, the ruble is trying to find a new equilibrium. The only question is what kind of balance this will turn out to be. If the Russian currency returns to its previous values, this will not affect inflation at all.

Inflation in Russia since the beginning of 2019 and forecast for the whole year

If we look at inflation statistics for the first three months of this year, the data is as follows:

• in March inflation was 0.29%,
• since the beginning of the year - 0.81%.

The inflation target set by the Central Bank of Russia for 2018 is 4%.

At the moment, thanks to the regulation of the economy using size key rate The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is successfully meeting this goal. Moreover, at the end of March, when the Board of Directors of the Central Bank once again revised the rate, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, especially noted that so far inflation in the country is growing more slowly than planned. Perhaps the Bank of Russia will even resort to special measures so that inflation accelerates a little and reaches the target 4% per annum.

Based on materials from bankiclub.ru

This table shows official Rosstat data on the consumer price index (CPI) for goods and services in Russia since 1991, broken down by month. The CPI is a key indicator characterizing the level of inflation. By studying the information in this table, you can track the rate of price growth for a specific month or quarter in 2017 or 2018. The index is updated at the beginning of the month following the reporting month. Please note that the value 100 corresponds to the beginning of the reporting month, and the published value corresponds to the end.

Inflation in Russia in 2017 - 2018 by month and year. Official data from Rosstat for today.

Using the data from this table, you can track changes in the inflation rate in the Russian Federation over different periods time starting from January 1991. Information about the current value of thisThe coefficient is updated monthly.

Various price dynamics indicators— producer price indices, gross deflator internal product, consumer price index. When people talk about inflation, they usually mean the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the change over time in the cost of a set of food, non-food goods and services consumed by the average household (i.e., the cost of the “consumer basket”). The choice of the CPI as the main indicator of inflation is associated with its role as important indicator dynamics of the cost of living of the population. In addition, the CPI has a number of characteristics that make it convenient for widespread use - simplicity and clarity of the construction methodology, monthly calculation frequency, and prompt publication.

The periods over which the CPI is measured may vary. The most common comparisons of the level of consumer prices in a certain month of the year with their level in the previous month, the corresponding month of the previous year, December of the previous year.

Statistical observation of prices, necessary calculations and publication of data on the CPI in Russia is carried out by Federal service state statistics.

Features of the Russian consumer basket

In Russia, as in countries with emerging markets in general, characteristic feature consumer basket is a fairly high share of food products in it (in 2014 - 36.5%). Their prices are quite variable. To a large extent, fluctuations in inflation in the food market are determined by changes in supply volumes, primarily the crop yield in our country and in the world, which significantly depends on weather conditions. Since the share of food products in the consumer basket is high, fluctuations in their prices can have a significant impact on inflation as a whole.

Another feature of the Russian consumer basket used to calculate the CPI is the presence of goods and services in it, the prices and tariffs of which are subject to administrative influence. Thus, the state regulates tariffs for a number of public utility services, passenger transport, communications, and some others. In addition, prices for tobacco products and alcoholic beverages significantly depend on excise tax rates.

Consumer demand is satisfied through goods and services of both domestic and foreign origin. There are no statistical data on the share of imports in the CPI, but an idea of ​​it in terms of goods can be given by the share of imports in the structure of commodity resources retail(V recent years- about 44%). The significant share of merchandise imports in the consumer basket determines the significant impact of changes in the ruble exchange rate on inflation.

Inflation factors

Prices may rise faster or slower. In the first case, they talk about an increase in inflation, in the second - about its decrease. There are various reasons changes in inflation. Let's look at them using the example of accelerating price growth. If the level of demand for goods and services exceeds the ability of supply to satisfy it, they speak of a pro-inflationary effect demand side factors. In some cases, the rapid growth of demand may be affected by too accessible loans and accelerated growth of nominal incomes of economic entities. Often these sources of excess demand are called "monetary factors of inflation"- pressure on prices due to the creation of excess money.

Inflation can also rise when an imbalance in the market for a product or service arises due to insufficient offers, for example, due to crop failure, restrictions on the import of products from abroad, or the actions of a monopolist.

Inflation can be caused by growth costs for the production and sale of a unit of product - due to rising prices for raw materials, materials, components, increased enterprise costs for wages, taxes, interest payments and other costs. Increasing costs can also lead to a decrease in production volumes and, further, to the formation of additional pro-inflationary pressure due to insufficient supply.

An increase in prices for imported cost components may be due to both an increase in world prices and a depreciation of the national currency. In addition, the weakening of the national currency can directly affect the prices of final products imported from abroad. The overall effect of a change in the exchange rate on price movements is called "carryover effect" and is often considered as a separate factor of inflation.

Economic theory identifies as a special factor inflation expectations— assumptions regarding the level of future inflation, formed by economic entities. The expected rate of inflation is taken into account by producers when making decisions regarding setting prices for their own products, wage rates, determining production volumes and investments. Households' inflation expectations influence their decisions about how much of the funds at their disposal to allocate to savings and how much to consumption. The decisions of economic actors affect the supply and demand of goods and services and, ultimately, inflation.

Negative consequences of high inflation

High inflation means a decrease in the purchasing power of the income of all economic entities, which negatively affects demand, economic growth, the standard of living of the population, and public sentiment. Depreciation of income reduces opportunities and undermines incentives to save, which prevents the formation of a stable financial basis for investment. In addition, high inflation is accompanied by increased uncertainty, which makes it difficult for economic actors to make decisions. All together, this negatively affects savings, consumption, production, investment and, in general, the conditions for sustainable economic development.

Benefits of Price Stability

Price stability means maintaining low growth rates in consumer prices, which economic actors neglect when making decisions. In conditions of low and predictable inflation, the population is not afraid to save in the national currency for long periods, because they are confident that inflation will not depreciate their deposits. Long-term savings, in turn, are a source of financing investments. In conditions of price stability, banks are ready to provide resources to borrowers for long periods at relatively low rates. Thus, price stability creates conditions for increased investment and, ultimately, for sustainable economic development.